Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
22 Jan 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.1 m (22 Jan 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 137 km/h 1.1 m 117 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique68,151 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 137 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

608 mm

Up to 1.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe1,266,595
+
Mozambique1,264,197 
Zimbabwe2,398 
50-100 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar2,128,392
+
Mozambique1,948,176 
Zimbabwe177,514 
Madagascar2,702 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 150 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 54 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 99 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 89 -
- - - - - Zambia
Blue 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 160 70 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 250 1.3 million
- - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

1.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.1m in Machesse, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 22 Jan 2021 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Jan 2021 17:00 Machesse Mozambique  1.1
22 Jan 2021 16:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  1.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Jonja Mozambique  1.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Bingue Mozambique  1.1
22 Jan 2021 17:15 Rupia Mozambique  1.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Antunes Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Chamba Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Beira Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Damiao Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 17:30 Tama Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Nhangau Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 17:30 Panaca Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.0
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Manica Mozambique  0.9
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.9
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.8
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampara Mozambique  0.8
22 Jan 2021 12:15 Amado Mozambique  0.7
22 Jan 2021 12:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 12:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Barra Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Jo Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Catine Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:45 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 China Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:30 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 16:30 Guiducua Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 15:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 15:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Onara Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:30 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:30 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:30 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:30 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:30 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Chichocane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Mahoa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:45 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:45 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:45 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:45 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:15 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:15 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:45 Beula Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 17:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:45 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:45 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:15 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:15 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:15 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:15 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:15 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:15 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:30 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Maputo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:30 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 15:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1