Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for TAUKTAE-21 in India, Pakistan from 14 May 2021 06:00 UTC to 17 May 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21

in India, Pakistan

16 May 2021 06 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TAUKTAE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	India, Pakistan
Exposed population	1.5 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	176 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (16 May 07:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	176 km/h	0.8 m	238 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	223 km/h	2.5 m	1057 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

223 km/h

Up to 1.5 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	India	24,062
CAT. 1	India	1,480,797
Tropical Storm	India, Pakistan	75,302,174	+
	India	74,601,635
	Pakistan	700,538

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	158	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	216	1.5 million				-	-	-	India, Pakistan

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	1,993,038
100-250 mm	India, Pakistan	55,190,343	+
	India	55,189,735
	Pakistan	608
50-100 mm	India, Pakistan	27,011,841	+
	India	26,873,285
	Pakistan	138,556

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	372	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	387	420 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	546	Few people			-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	270	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	241	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	288	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	671	57.2 million				-	-	-	India, Pakistan

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Vengurla, India. This height is estimated for 16 May 2021 07:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 May 2021 07:45	Vengurla	India	0.8
	16 May 2021 07:45	Terekhol	India	0.8
	16 May 2021 07:15	Chopdem	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 07:15	Anjuna	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 07:30	Marmagao	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 07:30	Vasco Da Gama	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 07:30	Panaji	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 07:00	Malvan	India	0.7
	16 May 2021 07:45	Madgaon	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 08:00	Agacaim	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 07:30	Achra	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 10:15	Vijayadurg	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 10:15	Devgarh	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 10:15	Pural	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 07:45	Advota	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 07:45	Chaudi	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 10:15	Purangad	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 10:15	Purnagad	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 10:15	Adiura	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 10:30	Mirya	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 10:30	Ratnagiri	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 10:15	Jaigarh	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 07:45	Majali	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 08:00	Sadashivgarh	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 08:00	Karwar	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 10:15	Boria	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 08:45	Belekeri	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 08:45	Ankola	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 08:45	Gokarn	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 10:15	Guhagar	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 08:00	Kumta	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 08:15	Honavar	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 08:15	Manki	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 10:15	Anjanwel	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 08:30	Mavalli	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 08:30	Shirali	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 08:30	Bhatkal	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 06:15	Udipi	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 06:30	Bainduru	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 06:30	Chittadi	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 10:30	Bankot	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 10:30	Kelshi	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 11:15	Srivardhan	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Pooneryn	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Aliavalai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 06:15	Kundapura	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Kavutarimunai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Nawaladi	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 11:15	Agar Panchaitan	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 11:45	Ampan	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Chiruttoppu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Mannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Periyavilankuli	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 12:00	Attimoddai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 09:00	Jaffna	Sri Lanka	0.2
	16 May 2021 06:30	Mulki	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 11:15	Murud	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 07:45	Kayts	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 07:45	Mangaluru	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 06:00	Talaimannar	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 07:45	Kurichchikadu	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 08:15	Kambhat	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 08:15	Kavi	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 08:15	Sarod	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 08:15	Kiranchi	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 10:15	Kozhikode	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 10:15	Beypore	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 10:15	Chaliyam	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 10:15	Tirurangadi	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 10:15	Tanur	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 07:00	Alibag	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 07:00	Revadanda	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 09:45	Tanniyurnagaram	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 06:15	Edakkad	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 06:15	Dharmadam	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 06:15	Tellicherry	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 06:15	Mahe	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 06:15	Badagara	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 06:15	Payyoli	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 07:00	Vellankulam	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 07:30	Nizampatam	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 07:30	Kottapalem	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 09:30	Tarapur	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 06:15	Quilandi	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 06:15	Talakkolattur	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 06:15	Cochin	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 06:15	Mattancheri	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.