Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
28 Aug 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (28 Aug 21:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 137 km/h 0.4 m 363 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 137 km/h 0.7 m 1646 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico535 
Tropical StormMexico1,918,867 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 137 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMexico9,070 
250-500 mmMexico849,454 
100-250 mmMexico1,978,680 
50-100 mmMexico7,040,861 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 289 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 488 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 413 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 318 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 363 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 391 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 193 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 225 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 143 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 179 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 220 130 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 950 2.8 million
- - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Chola, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2021 21:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Aug 2021 21:15 Chola Mexico  0.4
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Monteon Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 22:00 La Lima Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Chamela Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 18:15 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 23:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:30 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:45 Santiago Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:45 Manzanillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:45 Pizota Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:15 Corrales Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Estrecho Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:45 San Blas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 La Boca Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:30 La Paz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 El Real Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:15 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:15 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:45 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:30 Datilito Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:45 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:45 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:45 Dimas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Cedros Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:15 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:45 La Choya Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:45 Altata Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Cunano Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 San Diego United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Coronado United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:15 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Boal United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Marmol Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:00 El Tule Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Tripui Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:15 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Ligui Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Quinones Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:45 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Azure Vista United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Roseville United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Loma Portal United States  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:15 Rosario Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1