Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (29 Aug 23:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 79 km/h 0.3 m 145 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

140 km/h

Up to 330 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico333,560
+
United States135,065 
Mexico198,494 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 130 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico298,816 
100-250 mmMexico3,991,145 
50-100 mmMexico2,271,759 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 387 4.3 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Aug 2021 23:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
29 Aug 2021 23:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 16:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 04:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Monteon Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:00 La Lima Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Chola Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Novillero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:00 Santiago Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:30 San Blas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 13:30 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:15 Empalme Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 Ipala Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 13:15 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:45 La Playa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Corrales Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 02:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 02:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:15 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:15 Molino Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 Pizota Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 06:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:45 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 13:15 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Liliba Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:15 La Boca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 13:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:45 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:45 El Barril Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:15 Cedros Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Azure Vista United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Roseville United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Loma Portal United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 San Diego United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Coronado United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 La Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:00 El Tule Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:15 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:30 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 11:00 Chula Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:30 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Dimas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 10:45 Apisa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1