Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21
in China, Philippines
06 Sep 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHANTHU-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries China, Philippines
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (06 Sep 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 83 km/h 0.7 m 118 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 252 km/h 1.9 m 709 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

252 km/h

Up to 4.6 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormChina, Philippines4,640,941
+
China1,108,170 
Philippines3,532,771 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Sep 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 2 06 Sep 2021 12:00 83 -
- - - - - China, North Korea
GREEN 3 06 Sep 2021 18:00 155 -
- - - - - China, Philippines
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPhilippines2,859,201 
100-250 mmNorth Korea, South Korea, China, Philippines38,483,285
+
China151,751 
North Korea838,573 
South Korea9,608 
Philippines37,483,351 
50-100 mmChina, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Philippines27,700,170
+
China11,284,950 
North Korea1,860,354 
South Korea120,728 
Japan3,476,904 
Philippines10,957,231 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Sep 2021 06:00 164 -
- - - - - China
Blue 2 06 Sep 2021 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 3 06 Sep 2021 18:00 481 41.3 million
- - - China, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Philippines




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC