Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21
in China, Philippines
07 Sep 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHANTHU-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Philippines, Paracel Islands
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 166 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (07 Sep 22:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 166 km/h 0.5 m 230 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 252 km/h 1.9 m 709 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

252 km/h

Up to 20 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Philippines1,423 
CAT. 1Philippines14,535 
Tropical StormPhilippines, Paracel Islands3,653,670
+
Philippines3,653,354 
Paracel Islands315 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Sep 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 2 06 Sep 2021 12:00 83 -
- - - - - China, North Korea
GREEN 3 06 Sep 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - China, Philippines
GREEN 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 5 07 Sep 2021 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 6 07 Sep 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 7 07 Sep 2021 18:00 198 20 thousand
- - - Philippines, Paracel Islands
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPhilippines4,129,611 
100-250 mmJapan, Philippines, Paracel Islands28,914,227
+
Japan265 
Philippines28,913,791 
Paracel Islands170 
50-100 mmChina, Japan, Philippines, Paracel Islands12,347,213
+
China1,841,648 
Japan1,158,402 
Philippines9,346,997 
Paracel Islands166 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Sep 2021 06:00 164 -
- - - - - China
Blue 2 06 Sep 2021 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 3 06 Sep 2021 18:00 118 90 thousand
- - - - North Korea, Philippines
Blue 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 107 10 thousand
- - - - North Korea, South Korea, Philippines
Blue 5 07 Sep 2021 06:00 132 60 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 6 07 Sep 2021 12:00 186 130 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 7 07 Sep 2021 18:00 467 33 million
- - - China, Japan, Philippines, Paracel Islands




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC