Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21
in China, Philippines
10 Sep 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHANTHU-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Russia, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines, Paracel Islands
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 216 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (10 Sep 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 216 km/h 0.7 m 297 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 252 km/h 1.9 m 709 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

252 km/h

Up to 20 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Philippines19,241 
CAT. 1Japan, Taiwan, Philippines5,437
+
Japan1,670 
Taiwan1,993 
Philippines1,773 
Tropical StormRussia, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines, Paracel Islands3,892,818
+
Russia30,326 
Japan127,497 
South Korea48,354 
China3,573,692 
Taiwan54,521 
Philippines58,394 
Paracel Islands30 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Sep 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 2 06 Sep 2021 12:00 83 -
- - - - - China, North Korea
GREEN 3 06 Sep 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - China, Philippines
GREEN 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 5 07 Sep 2021 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 6 07 Sep 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 7 07 Sep 2021 18:00 166 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 8 08 Sep 2021 00:00 173 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 9 08 Sep 2021 06:00 187 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 10 08 Sep 2021 12:00 202 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 11 08 Sep 2021 18:00 252 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 12 09 Sep 2021 00:00 227 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Sep 2021 06:00 216 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 09 Sep 2021 12:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 09 Sep 2021 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands
GREEN 16 10 Sep 2021 00:00 212 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands
GREEN 17 10 Sep 2021 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 10 Sep 2021 12:00 194 1 thousand
- - - - Philippines
GREEN 19 10 Sep 2021 18:00 216 20 thousand
- - - Russia, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines, Paracel Islands
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPhilippines21,168 
100-250 mmRussia, South Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines26,316,887
+
Russia16,932 
South Korea167,488 
Japan927,510 
China22,128,458 
Taiwan504,261 
Philippines2,572,236 
50-100 mmRussia, South Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines85,849,264
+
Russia333,622 
South Korea381,382 
Japan4,555,834 
China54,845,516 
Taiwan4,722,112 
Philippines21,010,796 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Sep 2021 06:00 164 -
- - - - - China
Blue 2 06 Sep 2021 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 3 06 Sep 2021 18:00 118 90 thousand
- - - - North Korea, Philippines
Blue 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 107 10 thousand
- - - - North Korea, South Korea, Philippines
Blue 5 07 Sep 2021 06:00 132 60 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 6 07 Sep 2021 12:00 186 130 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 7 07 Sep 2021 18:00 230 430 thousand
- - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 8 08 Sep 2021 00:00 216 2.2 million
- - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 9 08 Sep 2021 06:00 227 8.8 million
- - - - Philippines
Blue 10 08 Sep 2021 12:00 215 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 11 08 Sep 2021 18:00 241 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 12 09 Sep 2021 00:00 218 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 13 09 Sep 2021 06:00 202 -
- - - - - China
Blue 14 09 Sep 2021 12:00 167 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 15 09 Sep 2021 18:00 179 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 16 10 Sep 2021 00:00 206 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands, Philippines
Blue 17 10 Sep 2021 06:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 10 Sep 2021 12:00 197 8 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 19 10 Sep 2021 18:00 592 26.3 million
- - - Russia, South Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.7 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC