Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21
in China, Philippines

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHANTHU-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Russia, Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines
Exposed population 2 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 198 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (11 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 198 km/h 0.6 m 230 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 252 km/h 1.9 m 709 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

252 km/h

Up to 2 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Taiwan, Philippines2,370
+
Taiwan2,341 
Philippines28 
Tropical StormRussia, Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines12,123,580
+
Russia16,337 
Japan153,690 
China11,558,092 
South Korea24,192 
Taiwan350,041 
Philippines21,225 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Sep 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 2 06 Sep 2021 12:00 83 -
- - - - - China, North Korea
GREEN 3 06 Sep 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - China, Philippines
GREEN 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 5 07 Sep 2021 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 6 07 Sep 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 7 07 Sep 2021 18:00 166 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 8 08 Sep 2021 00:00 173 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 9 08 Sep 2021 06:00 187 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 10 08 Sep 2021 12:00 202 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 11 08 Sep 2021 18:00 252 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 12 09 Sep 2021 00:00 227 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Sep 2021 06:00 216 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 09 Sep 2021 12:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 09 Sep 2021 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands
GREEN 16 10 Sep 2021 00:00 212 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands
GREEN 17 10 Sep 2021 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 10 Sep 2021 12:00 194 1 thousand
- - - - Philippines
GREEN 19 10 Sep 2021 18:00 216 3 thousand
- - - Philippines, Paracel Islands
GREEN 20 11 Sep 2021 00:00 198 20 thousand
- - - Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 21 11 Sep 2021 06:00 223 6 thousand
- Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 22 11 Sep 2021 12:00 198 2 thousand
- - - - Russia, Japan, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmSouth Korea, Japan, China1,789,539
+
Japan20 
South Korea62,208 
China1,727,309 
100-250 mmJapan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines74,039,089
+
Japan1,581,107 
South Korea486,691 
China71,052,199 
Taiwan899,815 
Philippines19,275 
50-100 mmRussia, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines54,632,886
+
Russia312 
Japan11,363,389 
South Korea7,008 
China28,818,565 
Taiwan13,945,775 
Philippines497,836 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Sep 2021 06:00 164 -
- - - - - China
Blue 2 06 Sep 2021 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 3 06 Sep 2021 18:00 118 90 thousand
- - - - North Korea, Philippines
Blue 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 107 10 thousand
- - - - North Korea, South Korea, Philippines
Blue 5 07 Sep 2021 06:00 132 60 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 6 07 Sep 2021 12:00 186 130 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 7 07 Sep 2021 18:00 230 430 thousand
- - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 8 08 Sep 2021 00:00 216 2.2 million
- - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 9 08 Sep 2021 06:00 227 8.8 million
- - - - Philippines
Blue 10 08 Sep 2021 12:00 215 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 11 08 Sep 2021 18:00 241 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 12 09 Sep 2021 00:00 218 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 13 09 Sep 2021 06:00 202 -
- - - - - China
Blue 14 09 Sep 2021 12:00 167 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 15 09 Sep 2021 18:00 179 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 16 10 Sep 2021 00:00 206 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands, Philippines
Blue 17 10 Sep 2021 06:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 10 Sep 2021 12:00 197 8 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 19 10 Sep 2021 18:00 297 1 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 20 11 Sep 2021 00:00 178 10 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 21 11 Sep 2021 06:00 378 3 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 22 11 Sep 2021 12:00 427 75.8 million
- - - Russia, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan, Philippines




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC