Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for CHANTHU-21 in China, Philippines from 06 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 18 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21

in China, Philippines

16 Sep 2021 18 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHANTHU-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Russia, Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Paracel Islands
Exposed population	40 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	252 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.9 m (13 Sep 14:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	252 km/h	1.9 m	709 mm	1.5
GFS Overall	252 km/h	1.9 m	709 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

252 km/h

Up to 40 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 4	Philippines	28
CAT. 3	Philippines	2,564
CAT. 2	Philippines	16,661
CAT. 1	China, Taiwan, Philippines	21,592	+
	China	17,490
	Taiwan	2,341
	Philippines	1,759
Tropical Storm	Russia, Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Paracel Islands	24,970,119	+
	Russia	13,257
	Japan	2,121,011
	China	4,529,082
	North Korea	46,509
	South Korea	452,465
	Taiwan	2,231,185
	Philippines	15,576,477
	Paracel Islands	129

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	06 Sep 2021 06:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
2	06 Sep 2021 12:00	83	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, North Korea
3	06 Sep 2021 18:00	83	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Philippines
4	07 Sep 2021 00:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
5	07 Sep 2021 06:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
6	07 Sep 2021 12:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
7	07 Sep 2021 18:00	166	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
8	08 Sep 2021 00:00	173	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
9	08 Sep 2021 06:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
10	08 Sep 2021 12:00	202	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
11	08 Sep 2021 18:00	252	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
12	09 Sep 2021 00:00	227	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	09 Sep 2021 06:00	216	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	09 Sep 2021 12:00	205	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	09 Sep 2021 18:00	194	-		-	-	-	-	-	Paracel Islands
16	10 Sep 2021 00:00	212	-		-	-	-	-	-	Paracel Islands
17	10 Sep 2021 06:00	205	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	10 Sep 2021 12:00	194	1 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
19	10 Sep 2021 18:00	216	3 thousand				-	-	-	Philippines, Paracel Islands
20	11 Sep 2021 00:00	198	20 thousand				-	-	-	Taiwan, Philippines
21	11 Sep 2021 06:00	223	6 thousand						-	Taiwan, Philippines
22	11 Sep 2021 12:00	198	2 thousand			-	-	-	-	Taiwan, Philippines
23	11 Sep 2021 18:00	169	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan, Taiwan, Philippines
24	12 Sep 2021 00:00	158	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines
25	12 Sep 2021 06:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Taiwan, Japan
26	12 Sep 2021 12:00	130	-		-	-	-	-	-	China, Japan, Taiwan
27	12 Sep 2021 18:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	Russia, Japan, China
28	13 Sep 2021 00:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	Russia, Japan, China
29	13 Sep 2021 06:00	126	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	Russia, Japan, South Korea, China
30	13 Sep 2021 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Russia, South Korea, China
31	13 Sep 2021 18:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Russia, South Korea, China
32	14 Sep 2021 00:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea, China
33	14 Sep 2021 06:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea, China
34	14 Sep 2021 12:00	83	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea, China
35	14 Sep 2021 18:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea
36	15 Sep 2021 00:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea
37	15 Sep 2021 06:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea
38	15 Sep 2021 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	15 Sep 2021 18:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	16 Sep 2021 00:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea
41	16 Sep 2021 06:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea
42	16 Sep 2021 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea
43	16 Sep 2021 18:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan, South Korea

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	Philippines	205,145
250-500 mm	South Korea, Japan, China, Taiwan, Philippines	34,938,820	+
	China	677,065
	Japan	11,810
	South Korea	548,830
	Taiwan	12,983
	Philippines	33,688,131
100-250 mm	Japan, North Korea, China, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Paracel Islands, Micronesia	172,935,348	+
	China	98,195,215
	Japan	34,101,872
	North Korea	1,098,699
	South Korea	12,758
	Taiwan	1,309,733
	Philippines	38,215,772
	Paracel Islands	129
	Micronesia	1,166
50-100 mm	Mongolia, Russia, China, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Philippines, Paracel Islands, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam	515,371,947	+
	Mongolia	7,852
	Russia	509,874
	China	380,823,174
	Japan	80,382,480
	North Korea	12,268,287
	South Korea	10,225,920
	Taiwan	20,975,945
	Hong Kong	7,326,481
	Philippines	2,679,153
	Paracel Islands	325
	Northern Mariana Islands	2,567
	Guam	169,884

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	06 Sep 2021 06:00	164	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
2	06 Sep 2021 12:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
3	06 Sep 2021 18:00	118	90 thousand			-	-	-	-	North Korea, Philippines
4	07 Sep 2021 00:00	107	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	North Korea, South Korea, Philippines
5	07 Sep 2021 06:00	132	60 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
6	07 Sep 2021 12:00	186	130 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
7	07 Sep 2021 18:00	230	430 thousand			-	-	-	-	Japan, Philippines
8	08 Sep 2021 00:00	216	2.2 million			-	-	-	-	Japan, Philippines
9	08 Sep 2021 06:00	227	8.8 million			-	-	-	-	Philippines
10	08 Sep 2021 12:00	215	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
11	08 Sep 2021 18:00	241	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
12	09 Sep 2021 00:00	218	-		-	-	-	-	-	Japan
13	09 Sep 2021 06:00	202	-		-	-	-	-	-	China
14	09 Sep 2021 12:00	167	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
15	09 Sep 2021 18:00	179	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
16	10 Sep 2021 00:00	206	-		-	-	-	-	-	Paracel Islands, Philippines
17	10 Sep 2021 06:00	240	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	10 Sep 2021 12:00	197	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
19	10 Sep 2021 18:00	297	1 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
20	11 Sep 2021 00:00	178	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
21	11 Sep 2021 06:00	378	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Taiwan, Philippines
22	11 Sep 2021 12:00	230	2 thousand			-	-	-	-	Taiwan, Philippines
23	11 Sep 2021 18:00	221	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Japan, Philippines
24	12 Sep 2021 00:00	251	7 thousand			-	-	-	-	Taiwan, Japan
25	12 Sep 2021 06:00	187	Few people			-	-	-	-	China, Japan
26	12 Sep 2021 12:00	103	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	China
27	12 Sep 2021 18:00	118	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	China
28	13 Sep 2021 00:00	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	13 Sep 2021 06:00	116	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea, China
30	13 Sep 2021 12:00	93	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea
31	13 Sep 2021 18:00	115	-		-	-	-	-	-	South Korea
32	14 Sep 2021 00:00	191	60 thousand			-	-	-	-	South Korea, Japan
33	14 Sep 2021 06:00	92	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
34	14 Sep 2021 12:00	60	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
35	14 Sep 2021 18:00	152	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
36	15 Sep 2021 00:00	120	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
37	15 Sep 2021 06:00	93	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
38	15 Sep 2021 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
39	15 Sep 2021 18:00	204	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
40	16 Sep 2021 00:00	164	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
41	16 Sep 2021 06:00	110	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
42	16 Sep 2021 12:00	91	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
43	16 Sep 2021 18:00	201	39.1 million			-	-	-	-	Japan, China, South Korea, Philippines

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

1.9 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
1.0 - 2.0 m	China	724,012
0.5 - 1.0 m	Russia, China, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines	4,474,754	+
	Russia	645
	Japan	817,616
	China	3,387,256
	North Korea	49,308
	South Korea	152,859
	Taiwan	358
	Philippines	66,710
0.25 - 0.5 m	Russia, Japan, China, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, Philippines	10,518,614	+
	Russia	15,249
	Japan	1,015,787
	China	4,939,809
	North Korea	194,050
	South Korea	212,651
	Taiwan	65,199
	Hong Kong	187,938
	Macao	404
	Philippines	3,887,523

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.