Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTHU-21
in China, Philippines
16 Sep 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHANTHU-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Japan, South Korea
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 108 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (16 Sep 18:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 108 km/h 0.8 m 91 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 252 km/h 1.9 m 709 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

252 km/h

Up to 5.7 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormJapan, South Korea5,707,648
+
Japan5,150,860 
South Korea556,787 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Sep 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - China
GREEN 2 06 Sep 2021 12:00 83 -
- - - - - China, North Korea
GREEN 3 06 Sep 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - China, Philippines
GREEN 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 5 07 Sep 2021 06:00 133 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 6 07 Sep 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 7 07 Sep 2021 18:00 166 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 8 08 Sep 2021 00:00 173 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 9 08 Sep 2021 06:00 187 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 10 08 Sep 2021 12:00 202 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 11 08 Sep 2021 18:00 252 -
- - - - - Philippines
GREEN 12 09 Sep 2021 00:00 227 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Sep 2021 06:00 216 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 09 Sep 2021 12:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 09 Sep 2021 18:00 194 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands
GREEN 16 10 Sep 2021 00:00 212 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands
GREEN 17 10 Sep 2021 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 10 Sep 2021 12:00 194 1 thousand
- - - - Philippines
GREEN 19 10 Sep 2021 18:00 216 3 thousand
- - - Philippines, Paracel Islands
GREEN 20 11 Sep 2021 00:00 198 20 thousand
- - - Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 21 11 Sep 2021 06:00 223 6 thousand
- Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 22 11 Sep 2021 12:00 198 2 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 23 11 Sep 2021 18:00 169 -
- - - - - Japan, Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 24 12 Sep 2021 00:00 158 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 25 12 Sep 2021 06:00 140 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Japan
GREEN 26 12 Sep 2021 12:00 130 -
- - - - - China, Japan, Taiwan
GREEN 27 12 Sep 2021 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Russia, Japan, China
GREEN 28 13 Sep 2021 00:00 144 -
- - - - - Russia, Japan, China
GREEN 29 13 Sep 2021 06:00 126 20 thousand
- - - - Russia, Japan, South Korea, China
GREEN 30 13 Sep 2021 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Russia, South Korea, China
GREEN 31 13 Sep 2021 18:00 101 -
- - - - - Russia, South Korea, China
GREEN 32 14 Sep 2021 00:00 112 -
- - - - - South Korea, China
GREEN 33 14 Sep 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - South Korea, China
GREEN 34 14 Sep 2021 12:00 83 -
- - - - - South Korea, China
GREEN 35 14 Sep 2021 18:00 79 -
- - - - - South Korea
GREEN 36 15 Sep 2021 00:00 72 -
- - - - - South Korea
GREEN 37 15 Sep 2021 06:00 101 -
- - - - - South Korea
GREEN 38 15 Sep 2021 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 39 15 Sep 2021 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 40 16 Sep 2021 00:00 115 -
- - - - - South Korea
GREEN 41 16 Sep 2021 06:00 101 -
- - - - - South Korea
GREEN 42 16 Sep 2021 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Japan, South Korea
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmJapan, China, Philippines41,017,781
+
Japan1,459,731 
China39,235,927 
Philippines322,122 
50-100 mmJapan, China, South Korea, Philippines146,415,789
+
Japan17,033,326 
China120,903,408 
South Korea2,137,399 
Philippines6,341,654 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Sep 2021 06:00 164 -
- - - - - China
Blue 2 06 Sep 2021 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 3 06 Sep 2021 18:00 118 90 thousand
- - - - North Korea, Philippines
Blue 4 07 Sep 2021 00:00 107 10 thousand
- - - - North Korea, South Korea, Philippines
Blue 5 07 Sep 2021 06:00 132 60 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 6 07 Sep 2021 12:00 186 130 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 7 07 Sep 2021 18:00 230 430 thousand
- - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 8 08 Sep 2021 00:00 216 2.2 million
- - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 9 08 Sep 2021 06:00 227 8.8 million
- - - - Philippines
Blue 10 08 Sep 2021 12:00 215 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 11 08 Sep 2021 18:00 241 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 12 09 Sep 2021 00:00 218 -
- - - - - Japan
Blue 13 09 Sep 2021 06:00 202 -
- - - - - China
Blue 14 09 Sep 2021 12:00 167 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 15 09 Sep 2021 18:00 179 -
- - - - - Philippines
Blue 16 10 Sep 2021 00:00 206 -
- - - - - Paracel Islands, Philippines
Blue 17 10 Sep 2021 06:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 10 Sep 2021 12:00 197 8 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 19 10 Sep 2021 18:00 297 1 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 20 11 Sep 2021 00:00 178 10 thousand
- - - - Philippines
Blue 21 11 Sep 2021 06:00 378 3 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 22 11 Sep 2021 12:00 230 2 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 23 11 Sep 2021 18:00 221 3 thousand
- - - - Japan, Philippines
Blue 24 12 Sep 2021 00:00 251 7 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Japan
Blue 25 12 Sep 2021 06:00 187 Few people
- - - - China, Japan
Blue 26 12 Sep 2021 12:00 103 30 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 27 12 Sep 2021 18:00 118 10 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 28 13 Sep 2021 00:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 13 Sep 2021 06:00 116 -
- - - - - South Korea, China
Blue 30 13 Sep 2021 12:00 93 -
- - - - - South Korea
Blue 31 13 Sep 2021 18:00 115 -
- - - - - South Korea
Blue 32 14 Sep 2021 00:00 191 60 thousand
- - - - South Korea, Japan
Blue 33 14 Sep 2021 06:00 92 - - - - - - -
Blue 34 14 Sep 2021 12:00 60 - - - - - - -
Blue 35 14 Sep 2021 18:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 36 15 Sep 2021 00:00 120 - - - - - - -
Blue 37 15 Sep 2021 06:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 38 15 Sep 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
Blue 39 15 Sep 2021 18:00 204 - - - - - - -
Blue 40 16 Sep 2021 00:00 164 - - - - - - -
Blue 41 16 Sep 2021 06:00 110 - - - - - - -
Blue 42 16 Sep 2021 12:00 180 41 million
- - - - Japan, China, South Korea, Philippines




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.8 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC