Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mauritius, Reunion
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 173 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.9 m (31 Jan 13:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 173 km/h 0.9 m 312 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 216 km/h 1.2 m 889 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMauritius, Reunion1,208,277
+
Mauritius918,604 
Reunion289,673 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Jan 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Jan 2022 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 28 Jan 2022 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 28 Jan 2022 06:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 28 Jan 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 28 Jan 2022 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 29 Jan 2022 00:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 29 Jan 2022 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 29 Jan 2022 12:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 29 Jan 2022 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 30 Jan 2022 00:00 144 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 30 Jan 2022 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 30 Jan 2022 12:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 30 Jan 2022 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 31 Jan 2022 00:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 31 Jan 2022 06:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 31 Jan 2022 12:00 187 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

889 mm

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmReunion44,109 
50-100 mmMalawi, Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar, Reunion514,950
+
Malawi18,064 
Tanzania133,530 
Mozambique21,130 
Madagascar4,576 
Reunion337,648 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Jan 2022 06:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Jan 2022 18:00 106 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 28 Jan 2022 00:00 67 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 28 Jan 2022 06:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 28 Jan 2022 12:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 28 Jan 2022 18:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 29 Jan 2022 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 29 Jan 2022 06:00 131 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 11 29 Jan 2022 12:00 174 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 29 Jan 2022 18:00 187 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 30 Jan 2022 00:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 30 Jan 2022 06:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 30 Jan 2022 12:00 167 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 30 Jan 2022 18:00 278 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 31 Jan 2022 00:00 305 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 31 Jan 2022 06:00 286 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 31 Jan 2022 12:00 653 40 thousand
- - - - Malawi, Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.9 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Jan 2022 12:00 UTC