Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

08 Dec 2019 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	104 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (09 Dec 10:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	104 km/h	0.5 m	252 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

Up to 440 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 1	Madagascar	271
Tropical Storm	Madagascar	437,215

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	133	Few people			-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	9,084
100-250 mm	Madagascar	841,764
50-100 mm	Comoros, Mozambique, Madagascar	2,345,857	+
	Comoros	9,833
	Mozambique	24,312
	Madagascar	2,311,712

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	282	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	402	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	134	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	227	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	188	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	297	850 thousand				-	-	-	Comoros, Mozambique, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Ampitilova, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 09 Dec 2019 10:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	09 Dec 2019 10:45	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 10:45	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 10:45	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 10:45	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 11:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.5
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 10:45	Ankomany	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 11:30	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 11:30	Madirobe	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 09:00	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Marosakoa	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Mariarano	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 09:30	Berafia	Madagascar	0.4
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Singalana	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:45	Anjajavy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 07:45	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 17:15	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 18:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 08:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 06:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 06:00	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 06:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Memba	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Muanua	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Nampuita	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Formone	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Macalopa	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 17:00	Nangata	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 18:30	Kilindoni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:45	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 02:15	Bemahala	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 02:15	Sarahanonoy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 02:15	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:30	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:30	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:30	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:15	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:15	Kilwa Kivinje	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:30	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:30	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:30	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:30	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 16:45	Arire	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 14:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:30	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:30	Sitarehe	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:30	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:30	Kengeja	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:30	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:30	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:30	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:30	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:30	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:30	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:15	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Palma	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:45	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Nacala Velha	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Namelala	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Capelelene	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Nhiendgi	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Maaia	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Nacala	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Chepa	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Matiquite	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Minhauine	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Kilwa Kisiwani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Kilwa Masoko	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 01:15	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 01:15	Savana	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 01:15	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 01:15	Tataho	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 07:15	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Moliha	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Dzoumogne	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Chingoni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Dembeni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Longoni	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Mamoudzou	Mayotte	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 19:45	Dzaoudzi	Mayotte	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:00	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:00	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:00	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:00	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 18:00	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Bawala	Mozambique	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:30	Olumbe	Mozambique	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 12:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:15	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:30	Befasy	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 15:30	Akondro	Madagascar	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 21:00	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:45	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:45	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:45	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	08 Dec 2019 20:45	Kipandoni	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.