Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (10 Dec 12:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	76 km/h	0.2 m	117 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	198 km/h	1.0 m	515 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

198 km/h

Up to 4 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Madagascar	4,389

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	126	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	148	Few people	-		-	-	-	-	Seychelles
11	07 Dec 2019 06:00	151	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
12	07 Dec 2019 12:00	158	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
13	07 Dec 2019 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Dec 2019 00:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Dec 2019 06:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Dec 2019 12:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Dec 2019 18:00	140	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mayotte
18	09 Dec 2019 00:00	198	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
19	09 Dec 2019 06:00	169	10 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar
20	09 Dec 2019 12:00	194	20 thousand					-	-	Madagascar
21	09 Dec 2019 18:00	86	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
22	10 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
23	10 Dec 2019 06:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
24	10 Dec 2019 12:00	76	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Madagascar	364,107
50-100 mm	Madagascar, Mozambique	13,203,315	+
	Madagascar	11,728,355
	Mozambique	1,474,960

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 18:00	71	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Dec 2019 00:00	228	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 06:00	301	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Dec 2019 18:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 00:00	265	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Dec 2019 06:00	135	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Dec 2019 12:00	154	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	06 Dec 2019 18:00	99	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Dec 2019 00:00	142	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
11	07 Dec 2019 06:00	194	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
12	07 Dec 2019 12:00	85	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Dec 2019 18:00	182	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Dec 2019 00:00	150	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Dec 2019 06:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Dec 2019 12:00	114	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
17	08 Dec 2019 18:00	174	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Dec 2019 00:00	159	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Dec 2019 06:00	134	6 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
20	09 Dec 2019 12:00	114	6 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
21	09 Dec 2019 18:00	92	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
22	10 Dec 2019 00:00	104	1 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
23	10 Dec 2019 06:00	121	5 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
24	10 Dec 2019 12:00	242	360 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Mozambique

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Ankoadavo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Dec 2019 12:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	10 Dec 2019 12:30	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:30	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:30	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:45	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Dec 2019 22:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Dec 2019 22:00	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Dec 2019 22:00	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Dec 2019 22:00	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Dec 2019 22:00	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Dec 2019 22:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:45	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:45	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:45	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 12:45	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 12:00	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 17:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 12:45	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 13:15	Appontement	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 12:00	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 12:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 12:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 17:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 12:45	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 12:45	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 12:45	Antonibe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 12:45	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 12:45	Antantiloky	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 12:45	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 12:45	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 12:45	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:45	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.