Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
20 Jan 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.4 m (23 Jan 05:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 83 km/h 1.4 m 150 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

137 km/h

Up to 320 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mozambique316,318
+
Madagascar285,887 
Mozambique30,431 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique707,774 
100-250 mmTanzania, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe2,596,319
+
Tanzania993 
Mozambique1,844,401 
Madagascar591,284 
Zimbabwe159,641 
50-100 mmTanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe7,541,560
+
Tanzania3,013,647 
Malawi95,537 
Zambia257,366 
Mozambique2,636,040 
Madagascar883,061 
Zimbabwe655,909 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 401 3.3 million
- - - Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

1.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.4m in Chiloane, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 05:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Chiloane Mozambique  1.4
23 Jan 2021 08:00 Divinhe Mozambique  1.1
23 Jan 2021 02:30 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 02:30 Jo Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 02:30 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Beira Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Natalia Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 07:30 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 07:30 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Antunes Mozambique  0.9
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Ampara Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Manica Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 01:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 00:45 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 00:45 Panaca Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 02:30 Laisse Mozambique  0.8
22 Jan 2021 18:45 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.8
22 Jan 2021 18:45 Machesse Mozambique  0.7
22 Jan 2021 18:45 Rupia Mozambique  0.7
23 Jan 2021 03:00 Catine Mozambique  0.7
22 Jan 2021 18:45 Jonja Mozambique  0.7
22 Jan 2021 18:45 Bingue Mozambique  0.7
22 Jan 2021 16:15 Tama Mozambique  0.7
23 Jan 2021 08:15 Afonso Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 08:15 Asneira Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Amado Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 03:15 Caulino Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 07:00 China Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 13:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Chichocane Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Mahoa Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Uetela Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 12:45 Mulia Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 12:45 Barra Mozambique  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Katsepy Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Majunga Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Boanamary Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.4
21 Jan 2021 01:30 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.4
22 Jan 2021 13:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 12:45 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 12:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2021 21:15 Andamoty Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 21:15 Madirobe Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 21:15 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Manampea Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Antsafy Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Onara Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 12:30 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 12:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:45 Marovoha Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:45 Ampitily Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:45 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:45 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:45 Singalana Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:45 Antaribao Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:45 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:45 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:45 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:45 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:45 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Beula Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Maxixe Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Chicoque Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Inhambane Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Guilande Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Banga Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Miramar Mozambique  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:15 Ambondrombe Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:15 Ankilahila Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:15 Ankomany Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:15 Marosakoa Madagascar  0.3
20 Jan 2021 19:15 Mariarano Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:30 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:30 Marovazha Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:30 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:30 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 08:30 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 08:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 07:45 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 13:00 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:15 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 20:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 07:45 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 06:45 Bambe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 06:45 Maguemba Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 06:45 Macashale Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 06:45 Macanzele Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Morrua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Carramali Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 07:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 06:15 Afo Mozambique  0.2
20 Jan 2021 18:15 Berafia Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 18:15 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 18:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 18:15 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Pebane Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Bajone Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 20:15 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.2
20 Jan 2021 20:15 Androlavy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:15 Caramaca Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 05:45 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Ampasina Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Antakobola Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 21:15 Ananalava Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Fabiao Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Napito Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 06:45 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 06:45 Baly Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:30 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 10:00 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 01:45 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 02:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Anoromby Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 21:00 Metula Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Larde Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:30 Anjajavy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Maputo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:30 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Aube Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:45 Aiai Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:45 Cimbene Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 01:00 Somanga Tanzania  0.1
21 Jan 2021 01:00 Pombwe Tanzania  0.1
21 Jan 2021 01:00 Jaja Tanzania  0.1
20 Jan 2021 20:15 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 16:45 Canhamba Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Mipande Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Mucojo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Foque Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 12:45 Pangane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Angoche Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:15 Marere Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:15 Lucete Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:15 Libambai Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 00:45 Matapatapa Tanzania  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:30 Momade Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 11:30 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 14:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Ankaranakatra Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 14:45 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Quissengue Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Bawala Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Olumbe Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Palma Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 18:00 Boala Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:15 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:45 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 13:15 Mikindani Tanzania  0.1
21 Jan 2021 13:15 Naumba Tanzania  0.1
21 Jan 2021 13:15 Mtwara Tanzania  0.1
21 Jan 2021 13:15 Msangamkuu Tanzania  0.1
21 Jan 2021 13:15 Madimba Tanzania  0.1
20 Jan 2021 23:45 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 23:45 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
20 Jan 2021 23:45 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 13:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1