Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
22 Jan 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 144 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.1 m (23 Jan 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 144 km/h 2.1 m 166 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 158 km/h 3.2 m 1024 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa1,056,497
+
Mozambique1,048,694 
Zimbabwe815 
South Africa6,988 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 79 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 126 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 137 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 144 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

1024 mm

Up to 5 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmSouth Africa11,976 
500-750 mmZimbabwe, South Africa171,551
+
Zimbabwe4,457 
South Africa167,094 
250-500 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa654,907
+
Mozambique26,399 
Zimbabwe216,058 
South Africa412,450 
100-250 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa4,134,927
+
Mozambique1,509,639 
Zimbabwe1,237,990 
South Africa1,387,298 
50-100 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland2,651,928
+
Mozambique1,071,327 
Zimbabwe975,750 
South Africa478,043 
Swaziland126,808 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 38 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 181 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 346 60 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 483 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 204 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 329 580 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 508 290 thousand
- - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 503 120 thousand
- - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 282 100 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 612 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 383 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 390 7 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 185 30 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 221 20 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 286 170 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 186 110 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 179 10 thousand
- - - - Malawi, Mozambique
Blue 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 820 5 million
- Mozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Swaziland




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

2.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.1m in Antunes, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Antunes Mozambique  2.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Chamba Mozambique  2.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Beira Mozambique  2.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Damiao Mozambique  2.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Manica Mozambique  2.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  2.1
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Nhangau Mozambique  2.0
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Ambanhe Mozambique  2.0
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Ampara Mozambique  2.0
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.5
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Panaca Mozambique  1.5
22 Jan 2021 23:45 Metambanhe Mozambique  1.5
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Tama Mozambique  1.3
22 Jan 2021 20:15 Jonja Mozambique  1.2
22 Jan 2021 23:45 Chiloane Mozambique  1.2
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Divinhe Mozambique  1.1
22 Jan 2021 20:00 Bingue Mozambique  1.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.9
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.9
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.7
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Jo Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Natalia Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 00:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Rantabe Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:45 Catine Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Fananehana Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Antalavia Madagascar  0.3
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:00 China Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 19:45 Guiducua Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Amado Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 19:15 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 19:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:15 Bambe Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:15 Maguemba Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 18:15 Afo Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 20:00 Gueima Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:30 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Beula Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:15 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:15 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:30 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 19:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Maxixe Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Chicoque Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Inhambane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Guilande Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Banga Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:00 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:15 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:15 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:15 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:15 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:45 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:45 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:45 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:45 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Mipande Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Mucojo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Foque Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Pangane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Camo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Guinjala Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:30 Ingale Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:15 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:15 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:15 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:45 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 18:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:45 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:45 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:45 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:45 Onara Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:45 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:45 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:45 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:45 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Ambinanililabe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Antseranana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Anjiabe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Andasoa Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Amoronjia-Orangea Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:45 Ampondrahazo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Berafia Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 20:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 21:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:15 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:15 Andringahely Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:15 Ampisikanana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:15 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:15 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:15 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 22:15 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 23:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.1