Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for TAUKTAE-21 in India, Pakistan from 14 May 2021 06:00 UTC to 17 May 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21

in India, Pakistan

16 May 2021 18 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TAUKTAE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Pakistan, India
Exposed population	160 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	169 km/h
Maximum storm surge	3.9 m (17 May 22:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	169 km/h	3.9 m	251 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	176 km/h	3.7 m	920 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

176 km/h

Up to 160 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 1	India	162,672
Tropical Storm	Pakistan, India	70,400,628	+
	Pakistan	352,232
	India	70,048,396

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran, India
2	14 May 2021 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Maldives
3	14 May 2021 18:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
4	15 May 2021 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran, India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	126	-	-	-	-	-	-	Pakistan
7	15 May 2021 18:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	151	Few people		-	-	-	-	India
10	16 May 2021 12:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
11	16 May 2021 18:00	169	160 thousand		-	-	-	-	Pakistan, India

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	56,206
100-250 mm	India, Nepal, China	39,682,358	+
	India	39,681,102
	China	08
	Nepal	1,247
50-100 mm	India, China, Nepal, Pakistan	61,259,698	+
	India	60,934,162
	China	6,792
	Nepal	294,895
	Pakistan	23,847

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	194	1.3 million			-	-	-	-	India
2	14 May 2021 12:00	269	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	274	5.1 million			-	-	-	-	India
4	15 May 2021 00:00	315	1.6 million			-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	227	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	156	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	15 May 2021 18:00	159	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	193	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	215	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
10	16 May 2021 12:00	178	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	16 May 2021 18:00	399	39.7 million				-	-	-	India, China, Nepal, Pakistan

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

3.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 3.9m in Wadgam, India. This height is estimated for 17 May 2021 22:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 May 2021 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2021 22:45	Wadgam	India	3.9
	17 May 2021 22:30	Kambhat	India	3.8
	17 May 2021 22:45	Kavi	India	3.8
	17 May 2021 22:45	Sarod	India	3.8
	17 May 2021 22:30	Tankari	India	3.8
	17 May 2021 22:15	Asarsa	India	3.5
	17 May 2021 22:15	Harinagar	India	3.4
	17 May 2021 22:15	Ghogha	India	3.3
	17 May 2021 22:00	Dahej	India	3.3
	17 May 2021 22:15	Muler	India	3.3
	17 May 2021 15:30	Kathiwadar Bandar	India	3.0
	17 May 2021 16:00	Mahuva	India	3.0
	17 May 2021 20:30	Hansot	India	3.0
	17 May 2021 15:30	Jafarabad	India	2.9
	17 May 2021 16:15	Kotada	India	2.9
	17 May 2021 19:30	Bhagva	India	2.8
	17 May 2021 19:00	Damka	India	2.7
	17 May 2021 19:30	Olpad	India	2.6
	17 May 2021 15:30	Rohisa	India	2.4
	17 May 2021 15:30	Dharabandar	India	2.4
	17 May 2021 18:15	Surat	India	2.4
	17 May 2021 18:30	Jalalpur	India	2.4
	17 May 2021 18:30	Mahuver	India	2.4
	17 May 2021 18:30	Nausari	India	2.2
	17 May 2021 18:30	Navsari	India	2.2
	17 May 2021 18:15	Dharasana	India	2.0
	17 May 2021 18:15	Valsad	India	2.0
	17 May 2021 18:45	Bilimora	India	2.0
	17 May 2021 18:30	Udvada	India	1.9
	17 May 2021 18:30	Daman	India	1.8
	17 May 2021 15:45	Delvada	India	1.8
	17 May 2021 15:45	Nawabandar	India	1.8
	17 May 2021 18:30	Maroli	India	1.7
	17 May 2021 18:15	Umbargam	India	1.7
	17 May 2021 18:15	Bordi	India	1.6
	17 May 2021 18:30	Gholvad	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 18:30	Malyan	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 18:15	Sakhare	India	1.4
	17 May 2021 18:15	Tarapur	India	1.3
	17 May 2021 18:15	Boisar	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 18:00	Shirgaon	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 18:00	Palghar	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 18:00	Mahim	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 18:00	Dangarvadi	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 16:30	Kotra Nes	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 17:45	Agashi	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:45	Nalasopara	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:45	Dongri	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:45	Vasai	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:45	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 13:15	Mumbai	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 13:15	Asumumbay	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 13:15	Uran	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 13:15	Trombay	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 13:15	Diva	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 13:15	Taloje	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 13:00	Malad	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:45	Navghar	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 16:45	Kodinar	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 12:45	Mandve	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 19:15	Lodhwa	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 10:00	Alibag	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 10:00	Revadanda	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 03:45	Murud	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 03:45	Agar Panchaitan	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 04:15	Bankot	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 04:15	Kelshi	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 19:00	Guhagar	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 19:00	Anjanwel	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 04:15	Srivardhan	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 04:00	Boria	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 18:00	Jaigarh	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 18:45	Mirya	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 18:00	Ratnagiri	India	0.6
	16 May 2021 18:15	Purnagad	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 19:15	Sutrapada	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 18:00	Purangad	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 18:00	Adiura	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 19:15	Vijayadurg	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 18:00	Devgarh	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 18:00	Pural	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 19:15	Somnath	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 19:30	Gadechi	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 19:30	Okha	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 19:30	Aramda	India	0.5
	16 May 2021 18:15	Achra	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 19:30	Veraval	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 18:15	Malvan	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 18:30	Vengurla	India	0.4
	16 May 2021 18:30	Terekhol	India	0.4
	19 May 2021 12:45	Chiruttoppu	Sri Lanka	0.4
	19 May 2021 12:45	Mannar	Sri Lanka	0.4
	19 May 2021 12:45	Periyavilankuli	Sri Lanka	0.4
	19 May 2021 12:45	Attimoddai	Sri Lanka	0.4
	19 May 2021 13:00	New Kandla	India	0.3
	19 May 2021 13:00	Navlakhi	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 19:45	Chorwad	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 18:00	Chopdem	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 18:00	Anjuna	India	0.3
	19 May 2021 02:30	Pooneryn	Sri Lanka	0.3
	19 May 2021 02:30	Aliavalai	Sri Lanka	0.3
	19 May 2021 12:45	Jodiya	India	0.3
	19 May 2021 12:45	Tuna	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 18:00	Panaji	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 18:00	Marmagao	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 18:00	Vasco Da Gama	India	0.3
	19 May 2021 02:15	Kavutarimunai	Sri Lanka	0.3
	19 May 2021 02:15	Nawaladi	Sri Lanka	0.3
	19 May 2021 01:45	Ampan	Sri Lanka	0.3
	18 May 2021 07:45	Chudeswar	India	0.3
	18 May 2021 07:45	Salaya	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 18:00	Agacaim	India	0.3
	16 May 2021 18:00	Madgaon	India	0.3
	19 May 2021 12:30	Jambura	India	0.3
	18 May 2021 23:15	Jaffna	Sri Lanka	0.3
	19 May 2021 17:00	Atirampattinam	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 23:00	Mangrol	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 16:30	Kattumavadi	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 12:45	Mundra	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 12:30	Sika	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 17:15	Kodigeri	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 17:15	Vedaranyam	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 17:15	Vedaranniyam	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 18:00	Akri	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 13:00	Jhankhar	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 23:15	Shil	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 16:45	Manamelkudi	India	0.2
	18 May 2021 22:30	Kayts	Sri Lanka	0.2
	19 May 2021 14:00	Navinal	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 20:30	Advota	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 20:30	Chaudi	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 17:00	Ghuar Mota	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 15:00	Bhadia	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 15:30	Mandvi	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 18:30	Majali	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 15:30	Suthri	India	0.2
	18 May 2021 22:00	Kurichchikadu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	18 May 2021 23:00	Kiranchi	Sri Lanka	0.2
	18 May 2021 15:00	Gorser	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 17:15	Ammapatam	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 20:45	Sadashivgarh	India	0.2
	16 May 2021 20:45	Karwar	India	0.2
	18 May 2021 15:30	Ratia	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 08:00	Porbandar	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 08:00	Adodar	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 08:00	Miyani	India	0.2
	19 May 2021 08:15	Lamba	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 16:00	Nizampatam	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 16:00	Kottapalem	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 15:00	Dwarka	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 19:45	Belekeri	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 19:45	Ankola	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 19:45	Gokarn	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 08:00	Bhogat	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Thoothukkudi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Melmandai	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 04:30	Vembar	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 08:00	Madhi	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 16:00	Peddapatnam	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 16:00	Gollapalem	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 23:15	Vellankulam	Sri Lanka	0.1
	19 May 2021 16:00	Lankavanidibba	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 19:45	Kumta	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 19:45	Honavar	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 19:45	Manki	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 13:45	Rumra	Pakistan	0.1
	18 May 2021 13:45	Kalat	Pakistan	0.1
	19 May 2021 02:45	Talaimannar	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2021 19:45	Mavalli	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 19:45	Shirali	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 19:45	Bhatkal	India	0.1
	16 May 2021 21:15	Silavatturai	Sri Lanka	0.1
	18 May 2021 10:15	Bainduru	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 10:15	Chittadi	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 10:30	Kundapura	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 14:15	Pasni	Pakistan	0.1
	18 May 2021 14:15	Miski	Pakistan	0.1
	19 May 2021 15:45	Antarvedi	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 16:00	Kottaippattanam	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 10:30	Udipi	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 16:00	Bandamurlanka	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 16:15	Kottapatnam	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 08:15	Durgarajupatnam	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 08:15	Chakicherla	India	0.1
	18 May 2021 08:15	Vatturupallepalem	India	0.1
	19 May 2021 08:30	Tis	Iran	0.1
	19 May 2021 08:30	Chah Bahar	Iran	0.1
	19 May 2021 08:30	Ahmadizeh	Iran	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
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