Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for TAUKTAE-21 in India, Pakistan from 14 May 2021 06:00 UTC to 17 May 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for TAUKTAE-21

in India, Pakistan

17 May 2021 06 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone TAUKTAE-21 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	India, Pakistan
Exposed population	1.5 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	220 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.9 m (17 May 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (India)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	220 km/h	1.9 m	286 mm	2.5
HWRF Overall	223 km/h	2.5 m	1057 mm	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

223 km/h

Up to 1.5 million in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2021 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 2	India	10
CAT. 1	India	1,495,192
Tropical Storm	India, Pakistan	87,821,539	+
	India	87,444,502
	Pakistan	377,036

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	119	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	133	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	158	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	187	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	176	50 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
10	16 May 2021 12:00	212	250 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
11	16 May 2021 18:00	223	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
12	17 May 2021 00:00	220	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
13	17 May 2021 06:00	220	1.5 million				-	-	-	India, Pakistan

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2021 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	India	1,679
250-500 mm	India	1,664,222
100-250 mm	India	61,739,114
50-100 mm	India, Pakistan	37,772,720	+
	India	37,752,054
	Pakistan	20,666

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	14 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	14 May 2021 12:00	372	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
3	14 May 2021 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	15 May 2021 00:00	387	420 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
5	15 May 2021 06:00	546	Few people			-	-	-	-	India
6	15 May 2021 12:00	270	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
7	15 May 2021 18:00	241	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
8	16 May 2021 00:00	288	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
9	16 May 2021 06:00	238	6 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
10	16 May 2021 12:00	335	210 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
11	16 May 2021 18:00	346	490 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
12	17 May 2021 00:00	286	210 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
13	17 May 2021 06:00	591	63.4 million					-	-	India, Pakistan

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

1.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.9m in Kathiwadar Bandar, India. This height is estimated for 17 May 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2021 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2021 12:00	Kathiwadar Bandar	India	1.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Mahuva	India	1.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Jafarabad	India	1.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Kotada	India	1.8
	17 May 2021 12:00	Dharabandar	India	1.7
	17 May 2021 12:00	Rohisa	India	1.7
	17 May 2021 12:00	Delvada	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 12:00	Nawabandar	India	1.5
	17 May 2021 12:00	Bhagva	India	1.3
	17 May 2021 12:00	Damka	India	1.3
	17 May 2021 12:00	Olpad	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Jalalpur	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Mahuver	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Surat	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Nausari	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Dharasana	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Valsad	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Udvada	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Daman	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Bilimora	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Navsari	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Ghogha	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Maroli	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Umbargam	India	1.2
	17 May 2021 12:00	Bordi	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Gholvad	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Dahej	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Malyan	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Harinagar	India	1.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Sakhare	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 12:00	Muler	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 09:45	Nalasopara	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 09:45	Agashi	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 09:45	Dongri	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 09:45	Vasai	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 09:45	Mira Bhayandar	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 11:45	Tarapur	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 10:45	Mumbai	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 10:45	Asumumbay	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 10:45	Uran	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 10:45	Trombay	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 10:45	Diva	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 10:45	Taloje	India	1.0
	17 May 2021 11:45	Boisar	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Hansot	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 09:15	Navghar	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 09:15	Malad	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Shirgaon	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Palghar	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Mahim	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Dangarvadi	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 09:15	Mandve	India	0.9
	17 May 2021 12:00	Kotra Nes	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 12:00	Asarsa	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 09:00	Alibag	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 09:00	Revadanda	India	0.8
	17 May 2021 12:00	Tankari	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 08:30	Murud	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 08:30	Agar Panchaitan	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 08:15	Srivardhan	India	0.7
	17 May 2021 08:15	Bankot	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 08:15	Kelshi	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 12:00	Kodinar	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 07:30	Anjanwel	India	0.6
	17 May 2021 07:30	Guhagar	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 07:30	Boria	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 06:45	Jaigarh	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 07:30	Mirya	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 07:30	Ratnagiri	India	0.5
	17 May 2021 07:45	Purnagad	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 07:45	Purangad	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 07:45	Adiura	India	0.4
	17 May 2021 12:00	Wadgam	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 12:00	Lodhwa	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 12:00	Kambhat	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 07:15	Vijayadurg	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 08:15	Pural	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 08:15	Devgarh	India	0.3
	17 May 2021 07:45	Achra	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 07:45	Malvan	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 06:00	Chiruttoppu	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 06:00	Mannar	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 06:00	Periyavilankuli	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 06:00	Attimoddai	Sri Lanka	0.2
	17 May 2021 07:00	Vengurla	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 07:00	Terekhol	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 10:45	Marmagao	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 10:45	Vasco Da Gama	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 10:45	Panaji	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 10:45	Agacaim	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 10:45	Madgaon	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 07:45	Chopdem	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 07:45	Anjuna	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 06:45	Karwar	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 06:45	Belekeri	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 06:45	Ankola	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 06:45	Gokarn	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 09:15	Gadechi	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 09:15	Okha	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 09:15	Aramda	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 06:15	Kumta	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 10:30	Sutrapada	India	0.2
	17 May 2021 11:00	Advota	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:00	Chaudi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 06:15	Sadashivgarh	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 10:30	Thoothukkudi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 10:30	Melmandai	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 10:30	Vembar	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:00	Majali	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:30	Honavar	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:30	Manki	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 06:00	Mavalli	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 06:00	Shirali	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 06:00	Bhatkal	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 10:30	Somnath	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 08:15	Kozhikode	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 08:15	Beypore	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 08:15	Chaliyam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 08:15	Tirurangadi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 08:15	Tanur	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:00	Bainduru	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:00	Chittadi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:45	Edakkad	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:45	Dharmadam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:45	Tellicherry	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:45	Mahe	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:45	Badagara	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:45	Payyoli	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:00	Kundapura	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:45	Quilandi	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 11:45	Talakkolattur	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 08:00	Veraval	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Tanniyurnagaram	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Chirakkal	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Valapattanam	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Azhikkal	India	0.1
	17 May 2021 12:00	Cannanore	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.