Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
27 Aug 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (30 Aug 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 86 km/h 0.3 m 177 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

140 km/h

Up to 120 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico120,406
+
United States50 
Mexico120,355 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico447,852 
100-250 mmMexico3,018,708 
50-100 mmMexico3,112,541 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 414 3.5 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
30 Aug 2021 08:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 06:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 06:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 07:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 16:15 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 07:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:30 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:15 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:15 Estrecho Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 15:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 14:45 Chola Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 13:30 Santiago Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 13:30 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:30 La Playa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 04:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:15 San Blas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 04:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:15 El Real Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Molino Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:30 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:30 Corrales Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:30 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:45 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Ipala Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:45 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:15 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:45 Pizota Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:30 El Barril Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 20:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:15 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1