Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (24 Sep 11:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	61 km/h	0.2 m	100 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 260 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran	259,346	+
	Afghanistan	31,981
	Iran	227,364

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran

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Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	India, Myanmar, Thailand	1,346,774	+
	India	450,616
	Myanmar	689,887
	Thailand	206,270
50-100 mm	China, Nepal, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand	61,732,981	+
	China	90,287
	Nepal	672,401
	India	49,076,777
	Myanmar	3,839,592
	Bangladesh	4,544,380
	Thailand	3,509,542

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	215	1.3 million			-	-	-	-	China, Nepal, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Deh-Cabo, Somalia. This height is estimated for 24 Sep 2021 11:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Sep 2021 11:15	Deh-Cabo	Somalia	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 11:15	Cadayo	Somalia	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 11:15	Akri	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Jodiya	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:15	Jhol	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:15	Gadanjo	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Ghuar Mota	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Jambura	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:30	Bambu Khan	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:30	Goth Jumo	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	New Kandla	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Tuna	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:30	Bada	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:30	Cheru	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:30	Sonmiani	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:30	Al Khaluf	Oman	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:30	Filim	Oman	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:45	Thabyichaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:45	Kyaungbyin-ok	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:45	Hpanchaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Sika	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:30	Nga Thamok	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:30	Amaw	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Ywathitke	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Sittwe	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Kangyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Aindin	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Pyaingdaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Kyaukpyinseik	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:00	Magyi-ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Jhankhar	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Chudeswar	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Salaya	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Mundra	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 09:15	Gyibyin	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 09:15	Temauk	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 11:45	Aramda	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Qaysad	Oman	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Navinal	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Shwe-o	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Alanbya	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Mokkamu	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Boyagyi	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Kyaikto	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Kyaikpi	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Kawbein	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 09:30	Shwehle	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Daman	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Udvada	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Dharasana	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Valsad	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Damathat	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Pauktaw	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Zokali	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Taungxun	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 12:00	Bilimora	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:00	Myaukpyin	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:00	Pauktaw	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:00	Kyaukmaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:00	Ponnagyi	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:00	Gwedaukchaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 11:00	Asumumbay	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 11:00	Alibag	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 11:00	Mandve	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 11:00	Uran	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 10:00	Goth Lashkari	Pakistan	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 09:00	Keti	Pakistan	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.