Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (26 Sep 19:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	72 km/h	0.5 m	160 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 340 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran	338,756	+
	Afghanistan	60,772
	Iran	277,984

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	India	2,330
250-500 mm	Bangladesh, India	9,127,696	+
	India	8,757,542
	Bangladesh	370,154
100-250 mm	Bangladesh, India, Myanmar	73,359,039	+
	Myanmar	1,832,661
	India	64,157,969
	Bangladesh	7,368,408
50-100 mm	Nepal, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Thailand	98,872,562	+
	Nepal	4,704,546
	Myanmar	4,491,846
	India	78,019,737
	Bangladesh	11,584,546
	Thailand	71,884

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Thailand
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	139	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Thailand, Myanmar
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	253	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar, Thailand
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	540	82.5 million					-	-	Nepal, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Jazirah, United Arab Emirates. This height is estimated for 26 Sep 2021 19:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	26 Sep 2021 19:45	Jazirah	United Arab Emirates	0.5
	26 Sep 2021 19:45	Tarif	United Arab Emirates	0.5
	26 Sep 2021 19:45	Bu Lifiyat	United Arab Emirates	0.5
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Marfa	United Arab Emirates	0.5
	26 Sep 2021 18:45	Abu Dhabi	United Arab Emirates	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Dasah	United Arab Emirates	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ar Ruways	United Arab Emirates	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 19:15	Shwe-o	Myanmar	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 19:15	Alanbya	Myanmar	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 19:15	Mokkamu	Myanmar	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 19:15	Boyagyi	Myanmar	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 19:15	Kyaikto	Myanmar	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 19:15	Kyaikpi	Myanmar	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 19:15	Kawbein	Myanmar	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 19:30	Damathat	Myanmar	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 19:30	Pauktaw	Myanmar	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 19:30	Zokali	Myanmar	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 19:30	Taungxun	Myanmar	0.4
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Zahr	United Arab Emirates	0.3
	26 Sep 2021 19:00	Thamaseikta	Myanmar	0.3
	26 Sep 2021 18:45	Taunggyi	Myanmar	0.3
	26 Sep 2021 19:00	Budin	Myanmar	0.3
	26 Sep 2021 19:00	Kadaik	Myanmar	0.3
	26 Sep 2021 19:00	Donwun	Myanmar	0.3
	26 Sep 2021 19:30	Mahameik	Myanmar	0.3
	26 Sep 2021 18:45	Kangyisu	Myanmar	0.3
	26 Sep 2021 18:30	Shangyaung	Myanmar	0.3
	26 Sep 2021 19:00	Tanbingyaung	Myanmar	0.3
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Khindan	Myanmar	0.3
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Darein	Myanmar	0.3
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Kala-ywa	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ase-ywa	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Thaunggon	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Kyauktan	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Mibya	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Hngetkyidaung	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Thegondan	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Paung	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Dukhan	Qatar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Manfadh al Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Ras all Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Jimeirah	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Munaing	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Tagukana	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Kawpamagon	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Dubai	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Qasasil	Qatar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ar Rumaythah	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Umm Bab	Qatar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Salwa	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	As Salwa	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ad Dur	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Uqayr	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Az Zallaq	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Jaww	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Hamad Town	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:15	Kwanhla	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Qurayyah	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Salmbad	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	'Isa Town	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Budayyi	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ad Diraz	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Badi Jamrah	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Barbar	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Karranah	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Seef	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Jidd Hafs	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ar Rifa	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ar Rifa' ash Sharqi	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Manamah	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Juffayr	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Muharraq	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Sitrah	Bahrain	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ra's Munaysif	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Aziziyah	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 21:45	Ale-ywa	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ash Shariqah	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ajman	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Khubar	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:45	Mupon	Myanmar	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Umm al Qaywayn	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Pahel	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Bandar-e Laft	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Laft	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Payi Pusht	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:15	Bhimunipatnam	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:15	Konada	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 21:15	Kyaikkami	Myanmar	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 21:15	Hpayagon	Myanmar	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Bandar-e Dargaham	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Dogerdan	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 21:30	Tawgyaik	Myanmar	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 21:30	Chaunggyi	Myanmar	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 19:00	Qeshm	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 19:00	Bandar Abbas	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:30	Chittivalasa	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 19:15	Kayindaung	Myanmar	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Koyyam	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Dharmavaram	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 19:00	Naupada	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 19:00	Ammalapadu	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 21:00	Ase	Myanmar	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 21:00	Baruva	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:45	Vishakhapatnam	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Jazirat Al Hamra	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Umm Said	Qatar	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ras Al Khaymah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:15	Srikurman	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ar Rams	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 21:00	Wagaru	Myanmar	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Kambhat	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Kavi	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Sarod	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 21:00	Akechaungwa	Myanmar	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ghalilah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Wadgam	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 20:45	Pyapon	Myanmar	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 20:45	Apaung	Myanmar	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Bukha	Oman	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Khasab	Oman	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Kumza	Oman	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Ash Shishah	Oman	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Mish ab	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	As Saffaniyah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Khaluf	Oman	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Filim	Oman	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Al 'Arish	Qatar	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Hukitala	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Satabhaya	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:15	Rasalpur	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:15	Chandipur	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:45	Hormoz	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:45	Bideipur	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:30	Nuralrevu	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:30	Gopalpur	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:30	Arzeni	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 22:15	Asumumbay	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 22:15	Alibag	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 22:15	Mandve	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 22:15	Uran	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Basaidu	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Dustku	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Chahu Shomali	Iran	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:45	Chatrapur	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Pudimadaka	India	0.1
	26 Sep 2021 18:00	Chipurupalle	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.