Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (29 Sep 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.5 m	99 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 420 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India	422,222	+
	Afghanistan	69,448
	Iran	270,085
	Pakistan	81,112
	India	1,576

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
14	27 Sep 2021 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	27 Sep 2021 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	28 Sep 2021 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	28 Sep 2021 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	28 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	28 Sep 2021 18:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	29 Sep 2021 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	29 Sep 2021 06:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	111,403
100-250 mm	India, Pakistan	11,421,806	+
	India	10,871,482
	Pakistan	550,324
50-100 mm	Nepal, India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Thailand	77,842,636	+
	Nepal	5,432,997
	India	53,635,232
	Pakistan	18,197,295
	Myanmar	575,400
	Thailand	1,709

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Thailand
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	139	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Thailand, Myanmar
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	253	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar, Thailand
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	160	1.1 million			-	-	-	-	India, Myanmar
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	143	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	India, Thailand, Myanmar
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	55	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
14	27 Sep 2021 12:00	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	27 Sep 2021 18:00	85	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
16	28 Sep 2021 00:00	117	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	28 Sep 2021 06:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
18	28 Sep 2021 12:00	171	770 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
19	28 Sep 2021 18:00	141	290 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
20	29 Sep 2021 00:00	147	2 million			-	-	-	-	India
21	29 Sep 2021 06:00	284	11.5 million				-	-	-	Nepal, India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Asarsa, India. This height is estimated for 29 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Asarsa	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Harinagar	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Dahej	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Tankari	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Muler	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Ghogha	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Wadgam	India	0.4
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Bhagva	India	0.4
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Damka	India	0.4
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Olpad	India	0.4
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Kambhat	India	0.4
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Gangra	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Kakdwip	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Belpukur	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Kulpi	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Namkhana	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 08:00	Jalalpur	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 08:00	Nausari	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 08:00	Dharasana	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 08:00	Valsad	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 08:00	Bilimora	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 11:00	Surat	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 09:30	Mahuver	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 09:30	Navsari	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Kavi	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Sarod	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Jatar Deul	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Hijla	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Chandra Prasad	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Chandpur	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Kali	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Pangasia	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Harni	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Goal Bhaor	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Medua	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	South Dighaldi	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Kalupura	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Munsi	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Hazari	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Jagannathpur	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Lawrence	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Falcon	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Sakusia	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Hazipur	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Baga	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Rabipur	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Kadira	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Algi	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Gazi	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Miar Hat	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Ramiz	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Bedama	Bangladesh	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 10:45	Kotada	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 08:45	Udvada	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 08:45	Daman	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Abu Dhabi	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Dasah	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ar Ruways	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Umm Bab	Qatar	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Salwa	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	As Salwa	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Qasasil	Qatar	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Dukhan	Qatar	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Marfa	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 08:30	Maroli	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Zahr	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Jazirah	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Tarif	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Bu Lifiyat	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ar Rumaythah	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Uqayr	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ad Dur	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 11:15	Mahuva	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Az Zallaq	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Jaww	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Hamad Town	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Budayyi	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ad Diraz	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Qurayyah	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Badi Jamrah	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Barbar	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Karranah	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Salmbad	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Seef	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Jidd Hafs	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	'Isa Town	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ar Rifa	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ar Rifa' ash Sharqi	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Manamah	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Juffayr	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Muharraq	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Sitrah	Bahrain	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:15	Umm Said	Qatar	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ra's Munaysif	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Aziziyah	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Khubar	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 08:30	Umbargam	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 08:30	Bordi	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Wakrah	Qatar	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Gholvad	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Jimeirah	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Dubai	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ash Shariqah	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ad Dawhah	Qatar	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ajman	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 11:45	Nalasopara	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 11:45	Agashi	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 11:45	Dongri	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 11:45	Vasai	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 11:45	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Malyan	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Sakhare	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Dublat	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Khawr	Qatar	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Tarapur	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Umm al Qaywayn	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Dakhira	Qatar	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:30	Al 'Arish	Qatar	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ar Rakah	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Boisar	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Manfadh al Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ras all Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Shirgaon	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Palghar	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Mahim	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 11:30	Malad	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 11:15	Kathiwadar Bandar	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:15	'Arad	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:15	Al Hidd	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 08:00	Jazirat Al Hamra	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Abu az Zuluf	Qatar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Madinat ash Shamal	Qatar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Ghariyah	Qatar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	'Ayn Sinan	Qatar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 08:00	Ras Al Khaymah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 08:00	Ar Rams	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 11:45	Mumbai	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 11:45	Asumumbay	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 11:45	Trombay	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Mandve	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Uran	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Taloje	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Alibag	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ghizlan	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Safwa	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Jabal al Qawm	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Qatif	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Najmah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Tarut	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Busaytin	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 08:00	Ghalilah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Qalali	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al 'Adamah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ad Dammam	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 10:45	Jafarabad	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 09:00	Diva	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ank	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Sayhat	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Digha	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Ramnagar	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 11:15	Rohisa	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Al Mish ab	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	As Saffaniyah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Revadanda	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 07:30	Bukha	Oman	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Bijavbati	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 11:15	Dharabandar	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Rasalpur	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Chandipur	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:45	Pahel	Iran	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:45	Bandar-e Laft	Iran	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:45	Laft	Iran	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:45	Payi Pusht	Iran	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Masheh	Iran	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:15	Bagh	Iran	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:15	Safain	Iran	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 06:00	Band-e Hasineh	Iran	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.