Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	68 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (27 Sep 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	68 km/h	0.2 m	55 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 80 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran	82,162	+
	Afghanistan	57,386
	Iran	24,775

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	105,062
100-250 mm	India, Bangladesh	87,826,548	+
	India	86,792,183
	Bangladesh	1,034,364
50-100 mm	Nepal, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh	130,992,467	+
	Nepal	4,616,779
	India	111,727,030
	Myanmar	109,931
	Bangladesh	14,538,727

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Thailand
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	139	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Thailand, Myanmar
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	253	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar, Thailand
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	160	1.1 million			-	-	-	-	India, Myanmar
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	143	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	India, Thailand, Myanmar
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	274	87.9 million				-	-	-	Nepal, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Manfadh al Khafji, Saudi Arabia. This height is estimated for 27 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Manfadh al Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Ras all Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Jazirah	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Tarif	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Bu Lifiyat	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 07:15	Shwe-o	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:15	Alanbya	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:15	Mokkamu	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:15	Boyagyi	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:15	Kyaikto	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:15	Kyaikpi	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:15	Kawbein	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 10:45	Damathat	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Golbania	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Bagala	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Debpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Bhaylabania	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Chalitabunia	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Hare	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Neta	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Chhota Baisdia	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Andar Char	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Burirchar	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Lakshmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Manika	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:15	Bideipur	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:15	Supati	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:15	Bara Patharghata	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:15	Chhota Nishanbaria Chak	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:15	Dhalua	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:15	Bara Bagi	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:15	Chhota Bagi	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:15	Kuakata	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:15	Mahipur	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:15	Chandkhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Dhalapara	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Kamla Char	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Jafarnagar	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Barabkunda	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Bansbaria	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Kumira	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Sitalpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Bhatiari	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Dakhin Kattali	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Chittagong	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Bamnia	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Charparbati	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Munshir Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Tulatali	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Fakura	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Chandia	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Bara Ahmadpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Banskhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Bariakhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Kalidas	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Akbar Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Maitbhanga	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Lakshia	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:00	Pauktaw	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:00	Zokali	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:00	Taungxun	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 10:45	Gangra	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 10:45	Kakdwip	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 10:45	Belpukur	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 10:45	Kulpi	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Sandwip	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Dakhin Patenga	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Janali Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Kalapul	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Anowara	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Jahajmara	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Maijchara	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Sagaria	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Ishwar Ray	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Ishwar	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Dakshin Char Fasson	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Pyarimohan	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Annadaprasad	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Faizuddin	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Krishnaprasad	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Manpura	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:00	Ywathitke	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:00	Sittwe	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:00	Kangyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:00	Aindin	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:00	Pyaingdaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:00	Kyaukpyinseik	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 11:00	Hngetkyidaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 11:00	Thegondan	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 11:00	Thaunggon	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 11:00	Kyauktan	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 11:00	Mibya	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 11:00	Kala-ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 11:00	Ase-ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:00	Char Chapli	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:00	Bara Baliatali	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:00	Kalapara	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Nayamasti	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Ghoshbagh	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:45	Dakhinpara	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:45	Kanyinchaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:45	Jaliapara	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:45	Nyaunggyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:45	Zawmadat	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:45	Anauk Myinhlut	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:45	Kyaukpandu	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 11:30	Shangyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Gahira	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 08:00	Taunggyi	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 08:00	Budin	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 08:00	Kadaik	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 08:00	Donwun	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:15	Kambhat	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:15	Kavi	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:15	Sarod	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:00	Thamaseikta	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Hukitala	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Satabhaya	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 10:15	Namkhana	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 07:15	Wadgam	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Kukuri Mukuri	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Aicha	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Paila	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 09:00	Mahameik	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Khankhanabad	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Hatia	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Khaser Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Nalchira	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Ewazbalia	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Purba Gomdandi	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 08:00	Kangyisu	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 11:00	Al Mish ab	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 11:00	As Saffaniyah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 08:30	Tanbingyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Ar Kalmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Dasher Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 11:45	Ale-ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Napura	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 08:45	Khindan	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 08:30	Darein	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Dhurung	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 12:00	Lemsikhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Rasalpur	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Chandipur	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
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