Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (25 Sep 04:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.2 m	231 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 260 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran	264,352	+
	Afghanistan	34,832
	Iran	229,520

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	India, Myanmar, Thailand	3,292,421	+
	India	1,664,281
	Myanmar	1,232,742
	Thailand	395,396
50-100 mm	China, Nepal, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand	107,612,136	+
	China	235,988
	Nepal	4,845,997
	India	79,900,122
	Bangladesh	12,184,761
	Myanmar	7,689,482
	Thailand	2,755,783

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	413	3.3 million			-	-	-	-	China, Nepal, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in New Kandla, India. This height is estimated for 25 Sep 2021 04:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	25 Sep 2021 04:15	New Kandla	India	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 04:30	Tuna	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 04:15	Jodiya	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 04:00	Jambura	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 01:00	Dakshin Char Fasson	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 01:00	Char Pyarimohan	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 01:00	Char Annadaprasad	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 01:00	Char Lakshmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 01:00	Kanchanpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 01:00	Char Faizuddin	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 01:00	Char Krishnaprasad	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 01:00	Char Manpura	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:00	Golbania	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:00	Char Bagala	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:00	Debpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:00	Bhaylabania	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:00	Chalitabunia	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:00	Char Hare	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:00	Neta	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:00	Chhota Baisdia	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:00	Andar Char	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:00	Burirchar	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:00	Char Lakshmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:00	Char Manika	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 01:00	Jahajmara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 01:00	Maijchara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 01:00	Dasher Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:15	Bara Pata	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:15	Chandpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:15	Rabipur	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:45	Asarsa	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Hazipur	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Gazi	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Algi	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Ramiz	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:30	Sagaria	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:30	Char Ishwar Ray	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Hatia	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Nalchira	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 04:15	Mundra	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Khaser Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Ewazbalia	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Falcon	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Bedama	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Chandhuri Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Ishwar	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:00	Wadgam	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:30	Harinagar	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Kukuri Mukuri	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Aicha	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Paila	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 05:45	Suthri	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 04:45	Sika	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:00	Kambhat	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 04:45	Shirali	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 04:45	Bhatkal	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 04:45	Bainduru	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 04:45	Chittadi	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Dawanij	Oman	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Al Liwa	Oman	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Suhar	Oman	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.