Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India, Yemen
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (30 Sep 08:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	65 km/h	0.6 m	72 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 630 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India, Yemen	633,022	+
	Afghanistan	69,473
	Iran	260,520
	Pakistan	254,870
	India	47,507
	Yemen	651

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
14	27 Sep 2021 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	27 Sep 2021 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	28 Sep 2021 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	28 Sep 2021 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	28 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	28 Sep 2021 18:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	29 Sep 2021 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	29 Sep 2021 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	29 Sep 2021 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	29 Sep 2021 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	30 Sep 2021 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	30 Sep 2021 06:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India, Yemen

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	India, Pakistan	12,261,923	+
	India	12,011,754
	Pakistan	250,169
50-100 mm	India, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand	113,490,971	+
	India	86,774,875
	Nepal	7,816,938
	Pakistan	14,414,293
	Bangladesh	2,333,226
	Myanmar	1,624,534
	Thailand	527,102

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Thailand
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	139	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Thailand, Myanmar
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	253	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar, Thailand
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	160	1.1 million			-	-	-	-	India, Myanmar
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	143	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	India, Thailand, Myanmar
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	55	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
14	27 Sep 2021 12:00	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	27 Sep 2021 18:00	85	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
16	28 Sep 2021 00:00	117	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	28 Sep 2021 06:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
18	28 Sep 2021 12:00	171	770 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
19	28 Sep 2021 18:00	141	290 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
20	29 Sep 2021 00:00	147	2 million			-	-	-	-	India
21	29 Sep 2021 06:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
22	29 Sep 2021 12:00	92	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
23	29 Sep 2021 18:00	95	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
24	30 Sep 2021 00:00	130	90 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
25	30 Sep 2021 06:00	335	12.3 million			-	-	-	-	India, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Kambhat, India. This height is estimated for 30 Sep 2021 08:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	30 Sep 2021 08:45	Kambhat	India	0.6
	30 Sep 2021 08:45	Kavi	India	0.6
	30 Sep 2021 08:45	Sarod	India	0.6
	30 Sep 2021 08:45	Wadgam	India	0.6
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Asarsa	India	0.5
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Harinagar	India	0.4
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Ghogha	India	0.4
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Dahej	India	0.4
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Tankari	India	0.4
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Muler	India	0.4
	30 Sep 2021 09:45	Bhagva	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 09:45	Damka	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 09:45	Olpad	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 09:00	Kotada	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 09:00	Jalalpur	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 09:00	Mahuver	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 09:00	Nausari	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 09:00	Navsari	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 09:00	Bilimora	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 09:15	Surat	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 11:00	Suthri	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 09:15	Dharasana	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 09:15	Valsad	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Akri	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 07:15	Mahuva	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 09:15	Udvada	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 06:15	Jafarabad	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 06:15	Kathiwadar Bandar	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 08:30	Daman	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 08:15	Maroli	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 08:15	Umbargam	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 08:30	Bordi	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Rohisa	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 08:00	Gholvad	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 06:15	Dharabandar	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 08:30	Malyan	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Gangra	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Kakdwip	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Belpukur	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Kulpi	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 07:15	Sakhare	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 07:30	Tarapur	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 06:45	Delvada	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 06:45	Nawabandar	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 07:45	Boisar	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Namkhana	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 08:15	Dwarka	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 08:15	Gadechi	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Mandvi	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Bada	Pakistan	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 08:15	Madhi	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 07:15	Shirgaon	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 07:15	Palghar	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 07:15	Mahim	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 06:00	Dangarvadi	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 08:15	Bhogat	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 10:15	Okha	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 07:00	Nalasopara	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 07:00	Agashi	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Aramda	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 07:00	Dongri	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 07:00	Vasai	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 07:00	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 08:15	Lamba	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 06:15	Kotra Nes	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 06:45	Malad	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.