Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (25 Sep 11:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	76 km/h	0.2 m	195 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 280 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran	276,292	+
	Afghanistan	48,128
	Iran	228,164

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	611,220
100-250 mm	Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand	27,370,046	+
	India	21,818,401
	Myanmar	3,424,391
	Bangladesh	1,910,438
	Thailand	216,814
50-100 mm	China, Nepal, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand	161,310,826	+
	China	13,075
	Nepal	4,156,722
	India	115,353,748
	Myanmar	16,806,952
	Bangladesh	22,535,341
	Thailand	2,444,985

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	504	28 million				-	-	-	China, Nepal, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Golbania, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 25 Sep 2021 11:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Golbania	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Char Bagala	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Debpur	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Bhaylabania	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Chalitabunia	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Char Hare	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Neta	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Chhota Baisdia	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Andar Char	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Burirchar	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Char Lakshmi	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Char Manika	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Fanatir	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Jubayl Industrial City	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Jubayl	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Mish ab	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	As Saffaniyah	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 08:15	Kambhat	India	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 08:15	Kavi	India	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 08:15	Sarod	India	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 08:15	Wadgam	India	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Char Kukuri Mukuri	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Char Aicha	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Char Paila	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Dakshin Char Fasson	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Pyarimohan	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Annadaprasad	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Faizuddin	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Krishnaprasad	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Manpura	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Ar Kalmi	Bangladesh	0.2
	25 Sep 2021 11:15	Ywathitke	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:15	Sittwe	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:15	Kangyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:15	Aindin	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:15	Pyaingdaung	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:15	Kyaukpyinseik	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Kuakata	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Mahipur	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Char Chapli	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Bara Baliatali	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Kalapara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Al Khawwari	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Manifah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 08:00	Akri	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Jahajmara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Maijchara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Bhagva	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Damka	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Olpad	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Dahej	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Asarsa	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Harinagar	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Tankari	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Muler	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Ghogha	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:00	Kotada	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:00	Ghuar Mota	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:00	New Kandla	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:15	Kumta	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:15	Honavar	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:15	Manki	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Bada	Pakistan	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Cheru	Pakistan	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Sonmiani	Pakistan	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Dhalapara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Kamla Char	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Jafarnagar	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Barabkunda	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Bansbaria	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Kumira	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Sitalpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Bhatiari	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Dakhin Kattali	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Chittagong	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Char Lakshia	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:30	Maitbhanga	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Safwa	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Jabal al Qawm	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Qatif	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Ank	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Sayhat	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Najmah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Tarut	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Al 'Adamah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Ad Dammam	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:15	Dakhin Patenga	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:15	Janali Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:15	Kalapul	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:15	Anowara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:15	Mavalli	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Gahira	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Shirali	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Bhatkal	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Khankhanabad	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Purba Gomdandi	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Sandwip	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Nayamasti	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:15	Sagaria	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Ar Rakah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Khubar	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Dakhinpara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Kanyinchaung	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Jaliapara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Nyaunggyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Zawmadat	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Anauk Myinhlut	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Kyaukpandu	Myanmar	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Dasah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 11:45	Ar Ruways	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Pahel	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Bandar-e Laft	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Laft	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Payi Pusht	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Gokarn	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:30	Asumumbay	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:30	Alibag	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:30	Mandve	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:30	Uran	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 07:30	Bandar-e Dargaham	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 07:30	Dogerdan	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 07:30	Qeshm	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 07:30	Bandar Abbas	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Karwar	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Belekeri	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Ankola	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Basaidu	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Dustku	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Chahu Shomali	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Bainduru	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Chittadi	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:00	Jalalpur	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:00	Nausari	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:00	Dharasana	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:00	Valsad	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:00	Bilimora	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:00	Suthri	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:00	Mahuva	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Manfadh al Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 12:00	Ras all Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:00	Tuna	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 07:45	Udvada	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Char Ishwar Ray	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Char Ishwar	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 08:45	Dhurung	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 08:45	Lemsikhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 08:45	Napura	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 06:00	Jodiya	India	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 08:00	Hormoz	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 10:30	Bandar Suflin	Iran	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:00	Ali Akbardeil	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 09:00	Magnama	Bangladesh	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
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