Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran, India
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (27 Sep 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	72 km/h	0.4 m	143 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 500 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran, India	498,551	+
	Afghanistan	60,273
	Iran	281,258
	India	157,019

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran, India

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Bangladesh, India	297,098	+
	India	297,037
	Bangladesh	61
100-250 mm	India, Bangladesh, Myanmar	52,396,427	+
	India	49,695,171
	Myanmar	106,865
	Bangladesh	2,594,391
50-100 mm	Nepal, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand	94,861,352	+
	Nepal	2,146,542
	India	75,721,100
	Myanmar	907,216
	Bangladesh	16,022,888
	Thailand	63,605

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Thailand
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	139	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Thailand, Myanmar
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	253	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar, Thailand
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	160	1.1 million			-	-	-	-	India, Myanmar
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	313	52.7 million				-	-	-	Nepal, India, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Jazirah, United Arab Emirates. This height is estimated for 27 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Jazirah	United Arab Emirates	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Tarif	United Arab Emirates	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Bu Lifiyat	United Arab Emirates	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Al Marfa	United Arab Emirates	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Abu Dhabi	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Manfadh al Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Ras all Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Thaunggon	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Kyauktan	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Mibya	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Kala-ywa	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Ase-ywa	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Shangyaung	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Hngetkyidaung	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Thegondan	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:15	Mahameik	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:15	Thamaseikta	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:15	Damathat	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 03:15	Sidongyaung	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 03:15	Thechaung	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 03:15	Kanmaw	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 03:15	Bemagyauk Ywa	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 03:15	Mawgaungdon Ywa	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 03:15	Medaw	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 03:15	Tawbya	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 03:15	Thedangyi	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 03:15	Leiktaung	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 03:15	Awebindat	Myanmar	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Shwe-o	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:30	Kabyachaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:30	Yengangyi	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Bideipur	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:45	Kyatchaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:45	Yedwindaung Ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:30	Tanzon	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:30	Sadeinchaungoya	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:45	Taung-pi Ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:45	Kalonga Ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:30	Hukitala	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:30	Satabhaya	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Dukhan	Qatar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Zokali	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Pauktaw	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Taungxun	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Alanbya	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Kyaikto	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Kyaikpi	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Kawbein	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Taunggyi	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Ale-ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Mokkamu	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Boyagyi	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:45	Jalalpur	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:45	Nausari	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:45	Dharasana	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:45	Valsad	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:45	Bilimora	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:30	Ale-hman	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:30	Bokpyin	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:30	Atwin Bokpyin	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:30	Al 'Arish	Qatar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Budin	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Kadaik	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Kangyisu	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Golbania	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Bagala	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Debpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Bhaylabania	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Chalitabunia	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Hare	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Neta	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Chhota Baisdia	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Andar Char	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Burirchar	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Lakshmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Manika	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Kuakata	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Mahipur	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Char Chapli	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Bara Baliatali	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 06:00	Kalapara	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:30	Taungkamet	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:30	Phuruk Tew	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:15	Shangan	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Donwun	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:00	Hangapru	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 03:00	Karathuri	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 00:00	Tanbingyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 05:45	Rasalpur	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 05:45	Chandipur	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.