Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	50 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (29 Sep 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	50 km/h	0.7 m	92 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 440 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan	441,298	+
	Afghanistan	82,376
	Iran	249,260
	Pakistan	109,660

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
14	27 Sep 2021 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	27 Sep 2021 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	28 Sep 2021 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	28 Sep 2021 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	28 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	28 Sep 2021 18:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	29 Sep 2021 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	29 Sep 2021 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	29 Sep 2021 12:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	32,841
100-250 mm	Pakistan, India	22,518,656	+
	India	21,164,859
	Pakistan	1,353,797
50-100 mm	Nepal, India, Pakistan, China, Myanmar, Thailand	64,869,770	+
	Nepal	4,381,509
	India	39,679,722
	Pakistan	20,353,601
	China	105,632
	Myanmar	140,676
	Thailand	208,628

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Thailand
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	139	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Thailand, Myanmar
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	253	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar, Thailand
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	160	1.1 million			-	-	-	-	India, Myanmar
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	143	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	India, Thailand, Myanmar
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	55	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
14	27 Sep 2021 12:00	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	27 Sep 2021 18:00	85	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
16	28 Sep 2021 00:00	117	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	28 Sep 2021 06:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
18	28 Sep 2021 12:00	171	770 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
19	28 Sep 2021 18:00	141	290 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
20	29 Sep 2021 00:00	147	2 million			-	-	-	-	India
21	29 Sep 2021 06:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
22	29 Sep 2021 12:00	392	22.6 million				-	-	-	Nepal, India, Pakistan, China, Myanmar, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Kambhat, India. This height is estimated for 29 Sep 2021 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	29 Sep 2021 16:00	Kambhat	India	0.7
	29 Sep 2021 16:00	Kavi	India	0.7
	29 Sep 2021 16:00	Sarod	India	0.7
	29 Sep 2021 15:45	Wadgam	India	0.7
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Asarsa	India	0.6
	29 Sep 2021 13:00	Harinagar	India	0.6
	29 Sep 2021 13:00	Dahej	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 13:00	Tankari	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 13:00	Muler	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 13:00	Ghogha	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Bhagva	India	0.4
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Damka	India	0.4
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Olpad	India	0.4
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Surat	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 16:15	Kotada	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 14:00	Jalalpur	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 14:00	Nausari	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 14:00	Dharasana	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 14:00	Valsad	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 14:00	Bilimora	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 14:45	Mahuver	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 14:45	Navsari	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Udvada	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Daman	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 15:30	Mahuva	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:15	Abu Dhabi	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Maroli	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Umbargam	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Bordi	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Jatar Deul	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Gholvad	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Chandra Prasad	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Chandpur	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Kali	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Pangasia	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Medua	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	South Dighaldi	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Sakusia	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Kalupura	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Munsi	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Hazari	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Hazipur	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Lawrence	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Falcon	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Hijla	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Harni	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Goal Bhaor	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Jagannathpur	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Baga	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Rabipur	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Kadira	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Algi	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 15:45	Kathiwadar Bandar	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Gazi	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Miar Hat	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Ramiz	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Char Bedama	Bangladesh	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 16:00	Jafarabad	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Malyan	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Sakhare	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Dasah	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Ar Ruways	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Tarapur	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:15	Al Marfa	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:45	Boisar	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:45	Shirgaon	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:45	Palghar	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:45	Mahim	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 14:45	Jazirah	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 14:45	Tarif	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 14:45	Bu Lifiyat	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Mumbai	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Asumumbay	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Mandve	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Uran	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Trombay	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Taloje	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:30	Alibag	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Nalasopara	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Agashi	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Dongri	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Vasai	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Gangra	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Kakdwip	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Belpukur	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Kulpi	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 14:45	Diva	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Namkhana	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Sidongyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Thechaung	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Kanmaw	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Bemagyauk Ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Mawgaungdon Ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Medaw	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Tawbya	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Thedangyi	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Leiktaung	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Awebindat	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Malad	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Salwa	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	As Salwa	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Jimeirah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:45	Dubai	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Umm Bab	Qatar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Qasasil	Qatar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Zahr	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Ra's Munaysif	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Aziziyah	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Dukhan	Qatar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Uqayr	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Khubar	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:45	Kabyachaung	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:45	Yengangyi	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Ar Rumaythah	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Ad Dur	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Az Zallaq	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Hamad Town	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Qurayyah	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Salmbad	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	'Isa Town	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Jaww	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Budayyi	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Ad Diraz	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Badi Jamrah	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Barbar	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Karranah	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Seef	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Jidd Hafs	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Ar Rifa	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Ar Rifa' ash Sharqi	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Manamah	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Juffayr	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Muharraq	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Sitrah	Bahrain	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Ash Shariqah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Ajman	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Tanzon	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Sadeinchaungoya	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:45	Taung-pi Ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:45	Kalonga Ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Umm al Qaywayn	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Al Khawr	Qatar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Manfadh al Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Ras all Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 16:00	Rohisa	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Ad Dawhah	Qatar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 14:30	Kyatchaung	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 14:30	Yedwindaung Ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Ale-hman	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Bokpyin	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:30	Atwin Bokpyin	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 15:30	Kadin	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 15:30	Shangan	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Revadanda	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 15:15	Taungkamet	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:45	Phuruk Tew	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 17:15	Dublat	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 15:45	Dharabandar	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 15:30	Hangapru	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 15:30	Karathuri	Myanmar	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:45	Jazirat Al Hamra	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Ras Al Khaymah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 13:15	Ar Rams	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 12:00	Al 'Arish	Qatar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.