Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (30 Sep 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	79 km/h	0.4 m	86 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 1.1 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India	1,079,261	+
	Afghanistan	77,981
	Iran	614,951
	Pakistan	356,532
	India	29,796

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
14	27 Sep 2021 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	27 Sep 2021 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	28 Sep 2021 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	28 Sep 2021 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	28 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	28 Sep 2021 18:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	29 Sep 2021 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	29 Sep 2021 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	29 Sep 2021 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	29 Sep 2021 18:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	30 Sep 2021 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	30 Sep 2021 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	30 Sep 2021 12:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	India, Pakistan	23,715,753	+
	India	23,602,641
	Pakistan	113,111
50-100 mm	Nepal, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, Thailand	102,698,595	+
	Nepal	1,898,745
	India	88,767,068
	Pakistan	8,773,888
	Bangladesh	613,839
	Myanmar	2,259,499
	China	145,766
	Thailand	239,787

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Thailand
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	139	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Thailand, Myanmar
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	253	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar, Thailand
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	160	1.1 million			-	-	-	-	India, Myanmar
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	143	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	India, Thailand, Myanmar
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	55	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
14	27 Sep 2021 12:00	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	27 Sep 2021 18:00	85	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
16	28 Sep 2021 00:00	117	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	28 Sep 2021 06:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
18	28 Sep 2021 12:00	171	770 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
19	28 Sep 2021 18:00	141	290 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
20	29 Sep 2021 00:00	147	2 million			-	-	-	-	India
21	29 Sep 2021 06:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
22	29 Sep 2021 12:00	92	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
23	29 Sep 2021 18:00	95	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
24	30 Sep 2021 00:00	130	90 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
25	30 Sep 2021 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	30 Sep 2021 12:00	370	23.7 million			-	-	-	-	Nepal, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Wadgam, India. This height is estimated for 30 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 30 Sep 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Wadgam	India	0.4
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Kambhat	India	0.4
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Kavi	India	0.4
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Sarod	India	0.4
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Asarsa	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 13:30	Akri	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Harinagar	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Ghogha	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 16:15	Ghuar Mota	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Dahej	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Tankari	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Muler	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 16:15	New Kandla	India	0.3
	30 Sep 2021 16:15	Tuna	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 12:15	Suthri	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 16:00	Jodiya	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 16:00	Mundra	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 16:00	Jambura	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Bhagva	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Damka	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Olpad	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 17:45	Mandvi	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 17:45	Bhadia	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 16:30	Bada	Pakistan	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 15:45	Sika	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 16:00	Navinal	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 16:15	Chudeswar	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 16:15	Salaya	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Kotada	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Jafarabad	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Kathiwadar Bandar	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Mahuva	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 15:45	Jhankhar	India	0.2
	30 Sep 2021 17:15	Okha	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 17:30	Aramda	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 17:45	Gadechi	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 16:15	Keti	Pakistan	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 13:45	Sidongyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 13:45	Thechaung	Myanmar	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 13:45	Kanmaw	Myanmar	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 13:45	Bemagyauk Ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 13:45	Mawgaungdon Ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 13:45	Medaw	Myanmar	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 13:45	Tawbya	Myanmar	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 13:45	Thedangyi	Myanmar	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 13:45	Leiktaung	Myanmar	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 13:45	Awebindat	Myanmar	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Rohisa	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 14:45	Jalalpur	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 14:45	Nausari	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 14:45	Dharasana	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 14:45	Valsad	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 14:45	Bilimora	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 16:15	Jhol	Pakistan	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 14:30	Udvada	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 12:00	Dharabandar	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 12:15	Madhi	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 12:15	Bhogat	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.