Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

10 Dec 2019 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (10 Dec 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	54 km/h	0.2 m	204 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	09 Dec 2019 00:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
12	09 Dec 2019 12:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
13	10 Dec 2019 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	10 Dec 2019 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	93,890
100-250 mm	Madagascar	638,384
50-100 mm	Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique	3,467,306	+
	Comoros	7,735
	Madagascar	3,458,188
	Mozambique	1,383

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	282	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	402	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	134	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	227	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	188	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	252	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
11	09 Dec 2019 00:00	295	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
12	09 Dec 2019 12:00	247	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
13	10 Dec 2019 00:00	197	40 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Madagascar
14	10 Dec 2019 12:00	444	730 thousand				-	-	-	Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Andanivato, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	10 Dec 2019 18:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 18:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 18:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 18:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 18:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Dec 2019 22:30	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 11:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 05:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 05:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:15	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Assane	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Mwambo	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Msimbati	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:15	Quionga	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 14:00	Nantapa	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 14:00	Muaco	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 14:00	Quinga	Mozambique	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 14:00	Metula	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 11:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 11:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 11:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 11:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 11:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 11:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 17:15	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:00	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 05:00	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 05:00	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 05:00	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 05:00	Ambalanosy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 05:15	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 14:30	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 16:30	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 07:45	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 07:45	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 07:45	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 07:45	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 07:45	Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 13:45	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 13:45	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 13:45	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Sitarehe	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Kengeja	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:30	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:15	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:15	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:15	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 10:30	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 10:30	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 10:30	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 10:30	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 10:30	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 10:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 10:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 10:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 10:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 10:15	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 10:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 22:15	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Dec 2019 15:15	Quiwia	Mozambique	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:15	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:15	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:15	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:15	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:15	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 18:45	Sarahanonoy	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 18:45	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 18:45	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	13 Dec 2019 05:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.