Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
21 Jan 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (22 Jan 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 130 km/h 0.3 m 89 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 133 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

608 mm

Up to 1.6 million can be affected rain lower than 100mm





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMozambique1,177,678 
50-100 mmZambia, Mozambique, Madagascar1,556,760
+
Zambia84,741 
Mozambique1,400,157 
Madagascar71,862 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 150 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 54 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 99 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 238 1.2 million
- - - - Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 22 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Jonja Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Amado Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Mutiba Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Tama Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Barra Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Caliua Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Raraga Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Metapa Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 20:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Morrua Mozambique  0.3
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Carramali Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Bajone Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Pebane Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Beira Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Antunes Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Mutadua Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:45 Onara Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:45 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Moebase Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:30 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Manica Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:45 Caramaca Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:45 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:45 Ambato Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:30 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 19:30 Ampara Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 18:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Mocareja Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Napito Mozambique  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.2
21 Jan 2021 22:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:00 Larde Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:30 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 19:30 Metula Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 18:00 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:45 Aube Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:45 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:45 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:15 Jo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:30 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 22:45 Angoche Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 22:45 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:45 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:45 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 22:45 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 21:15 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 00:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:45 Voloina Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:45 Manambia Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:45 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:45 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:45 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 23:30 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
21 Jan 2021 20:15 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1