Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
23 Jan 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 112 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (23 Jan 08:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 112 km/h 1.5 m 145 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 158 km/h 3.2 m 1024 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

158 km/h

Up to 1.4 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormZimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa1,413,804
+
Zimbabwe196,577 
Mozambique1,205,419 
South Africa11,808 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 79 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 126 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 137 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 144 -
- - - - - Mozambique
GREEN 24 23 Jan 2021 00:00 158 1 thousand
- - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
GREEN 25 23 Jan 2021 06:00 112 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmSouth Africa45,685 
250-500 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe, South Africa410,387
+
Zimbabwe158,369 
Mozambique1,149 
South Africa250,869 
100-250 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa2,771,548
+
Zimbabwe1,595,652 
Mozambique188,346 
South Africa987,550 
50-100 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa1,913,303
+
Zimbabwe1,013,376 
Mozambique380,549 
South Africa519,378 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 38 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 129 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 181 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 346 60 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 483 9 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 204 50 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 329 580 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 508 290 thousand
- - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 503 120 thousand
- - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 282 100 thousand
- - - Madagascar
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 612 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 383 -
- - - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 390 7 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 185 30 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 221 20 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 286 170 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 186 110 thousand
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 22 22 Jan 2021 12:00 179 10 thousand
- - - - Malawi, Mozambique
Blue 23 22 Jan 2021 18:00 166 Few people
- - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 24 23 Jan 2021 00:00 193 30 thousand
- - - - Mozambique, Zimbabwe
Blue 25 23 Jan 2021 06:00 642 3.2 million
- - Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

1.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.5m in Chiloane, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 23 Jan 2021 08:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Jan 2021 08:15 Chiloane Mozambique  1.5
23 Jan 2021 07:15 Divinhe Mozambique  1.5
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Ambanhe Mozambique  1.1
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Metambanhe Mozambique  1.1
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  1.1
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Jo Mozambique  1.1
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  1.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Ampara Mozambique  1.0
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.0
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Manica Mozambique  1.0
23 Jan 2021 07:15 Natalia Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 07:15 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Beira Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 07:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.8
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Antunes Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.6
23 Jan 2021 07:15 Catine Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 08:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 08:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.5
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Caulino Mozambique  0.4
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Benjana Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:30 Castigo Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:30 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:45 China Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:15 Chichocane Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:15 Mahoa Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 07:15 Uetela Mozambique  0.3
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.3
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Mananara Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:15 Seranambe Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:15 Beula Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:15 Maxixe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:15 Chicoque Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:15 Inhambane Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:15 Guilande Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:15 Banga Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:15 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:15 Miramar Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 06:30 Bambe Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 06:30 Afo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:00 Maputo Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:00 Joannisse Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:00 Maziba Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:00 Aiai Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:00 Cimbene Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Singalana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Antaribao Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:45 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:30 Marovoha Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 11:30 Ampitily Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:00 Canhamba Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 16:00 Guiducua Mozambique  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:30 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:30 Manakalana Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:30 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:30 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Manehoko Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Antanimandry Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Anjabe Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 12:00 Andranomena Madagascar  0.2
23 Jan 2021 17:00 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:45 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 07:30 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 07:30 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 07:30 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 15:45 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 15:30 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 15:30 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:30 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:30 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:30 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:30 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 17:30 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Tanambao Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Bela Vista Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Machavene Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Antananabe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Anjiamalandy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Mandrony Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Anorotsangana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Antsahabe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Maromokotra Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Marokitrana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Ampiambesa Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:45 Antetezampolaka Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Fenerive Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Mahambo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Ananalava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambaliha Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Antanamazava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Ambatomainty Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 06:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 15:15 Gueima Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Ampasimpilily Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Bejongoro Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Ampandrano Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Andrafialava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Maromanjo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Anompaka Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:30 Madirotelo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Acache Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:15 Inhampsi Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Accua Mayotte  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Moliha Mayotte  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Dzoumogne Mayotte  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Chingoni Mayotte  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Dembeni Mayotte  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Longoni Mayotte  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Mamoudzou Mayotte  0.1
23 Jan 2021 09:45 Dzaoudzi Mayotte  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Ampasibe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 11:00 Analalava Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Berafia Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Tsianinkiro Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:30 Tsinjorano Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 18:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:45 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:45 Baly Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:45 Andriana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Contra Costa Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 14:30 Jacob Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:30 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:30 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:30 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 08:30 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 07:15 Induna Mozambique  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Andringahely Madagascar  0.1
23 Jan 2021 10:15 Ampisikanana Madagascar  0.1