Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
27 Aug 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (30 Aug 07:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 101 km/h 0.3 m 108 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

140 km/h

Up to 150 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico152,209
+
United States2,898 
Mexico149,310 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 148 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico1,179,921 
100-250 mmMexico3,164,627 
50-100 mmMexico2,651,334 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 559 4.3 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 07:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
30 Aug 2021 07:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Chola Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 17:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Corrales Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 06:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 06:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 07:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 06:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 16:15 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 16:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 16:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 03:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 16:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 16:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 04:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Monteon Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 03:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:45 Pizota Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 12:15 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 11:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 16:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 09:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:15 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:30 Liliba Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:45 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:45 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:30 La Playa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:30 El Barril Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 10:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 15:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 10:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 08:45 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:30 Altata Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:45 Santiago Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:45 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:45 La Paz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:45 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:15 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:15 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Barron Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:15 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:15 Loreto Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:45 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:30 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:30 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 05:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:00 El Tule Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:30 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:30 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:30 Ensenada Mexico  0.1