Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (24 Sep 18:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	61 km/h	0.3 m	98 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 270 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran	266,743	+
	Afghanistan	35,624
	Iran	231,118

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	India, Myanmar, Thailand	3,267,224	+
	Myanmar	114,194
	India	2,849,693
	Thailand	303,337
50-100 mm	China, Nepal, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Thailand	85,364,605	+
	China	88,549
	Nepal	1,107,938
	Myanmar	6,433,881
	India	67,019,742
	Bangladesh	8,328,735
	Thailand	2,385,757

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	312	3.3 million			-	-	-	-	China, Nepal, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Kambhat, India. This height is estimated for 24 Sep 2021 18:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Sep 2021 18:15	Kambhat	India	0.3
	24 Sep 2021 18:15	Kavi	India	0.3
	24 Sep 2021 18:15	Sarod	India	0.3
	24 Sep 2021 18:15	Wadgam	India	0.3
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Asarsa	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Harinagar	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Ghogha	India	0.2
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Dahej	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Tankari	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Muler	India	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Pahel	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Bandar-e Laft	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Laft	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Payi Pusht	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Bara Pata	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Hazipur	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Chandpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Char Lakshmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Kanchanpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Rabipur	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Char Algi	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Char Gazi	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Char Ramiz	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Dakshin Char Fasson	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Pyarimohan	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Annadaprasad	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Faizuddin	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Krishnaprasad	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Manpura	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Jahajmara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Maijchara	Bangladesh	0.1
	25 Sep 2021 00:00	Dasher Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:45	Hatia	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:45	Nalchira	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:45	Sagaria	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:45	Char Ishwar Ray	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Char Falcon	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Char Bedama	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Chandhuri Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Khaser Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Ewazbalia	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:30	Char Ishwar	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Char Kukuri Mukuri	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Char Aicha	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Char Paila	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:45	Bandar-e Dargaham	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:45	Dogerdan	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:45	Qeshm	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:45	Bandar Abbas	Iran	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 22:30	Munshir Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 22:30	Sandwip	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 22:30	Akbar Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 22:30	Nayamasti	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 22:00	Ghoshbagh	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:00	Ywathitke	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:00	Sittwe	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:00	Kangyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:00	Aindin	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:00	Pyaingdaung	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:00	Kyaukpyinseik	Myanmar	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:45	Dawanij	Oman	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:45	Al Liwa	Oman	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 23:45	Suhar	Oman	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 21:45	Char Fakura	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 22:00	Maitbhanga	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 19:30	Ar Kalmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Kamla Char	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Bhatiari	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Dakhin Kattali	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Dakhin Patenga	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Chittagong	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Char Lakshia	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 22:00	Dhalapara	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Golbania	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Bagala	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Debpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Bhaylabania	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Chalitabunia	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Hare	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Neta	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Chhota Baisdia	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Andar Char	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Burirchar	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Lakshmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Manika	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:00	Jafarnagar	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:00	Barabkunda	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:00	Bansbaria	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:00	Kumira	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 20:00	Sitalpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Gahira	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Janali Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Kalapul	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Anowara	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 21:45	Bamnia	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 21:45	Tulatali	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 21:45	Char Chandia	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 21:45	Banskhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 21:45	Bariakhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 21:15	Charparbati	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 21:15	Bara Ahmadpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 21:15	Char Kalidas	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 19:00	Khankhanabad	Bangladesh	0.1
	24 Sep 2021 18:45	Purba Gomdandi	Bangladesh	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.