Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

11 Dec 2019 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	50 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.1 m (11 Dec 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	50 km/h	0.1 m	139 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	09 Dec 2019 00:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
12	09 Dec 2019 12:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
13	10 Dec 2019 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	10 Dec 2019 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	11 Dec 2019 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Madagascar	576,171
50-100 mm	Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique	3,542,899	+
	Comoros	1,992
	Madagascar	3,540,216
	Mozambique	691

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	282	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	402	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	134	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	227	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	188	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	252	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
11	09 Dec 2019 00:00	295	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
12	09 Dec 2019 12:00	247	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
13	10 Dec 2019 00:00	197	40 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Madagascar
14	10 Dec 2019 12:00	204	180 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
15	11 Dec 2019 00:00	316	580 thousand			-	-	-	-	Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.1m in Donge, Tanzania. This height is estimated for 11 Dec 2019 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:15	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 05:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 05:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:00	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 03:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 10:15	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 10:15	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 10:15	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 10:15	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 10:15	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 10:15	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 02:30	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 02:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 02:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 02:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 02:30	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 02:30	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 02:30	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 02:30	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 02:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 02:15	Mkarangama	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 02:15	Kipingwe	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.