Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CRISTINA-20
in Mexico,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CRISTINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (07 Jul 19:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 79 km/h 0.3 m 154 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 0.4 m 436 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

115 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Jul 2020 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico63 
Tropical StormMexico164 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 133 Few people
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Jul 2020 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico1202 
50-100 mmMexico11774799 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 134 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 433 1 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Agua del Coyote, Mexico. This height is estimated for 07 Jul 2020 19:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Jul 2020 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
07 Jul 2020 19:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.3
07 Jul 2020 22:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.3
07 Jul 2020 22:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.3
07 Jul 2020 22:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.3
07 Jul 2020 22:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.3
07 Jul 2020 20:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.3
07 Jul 2020 22:45 La Playa Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 22:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 19:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 00:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 00:00 North Beach United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 00:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 00:00 Doyle United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 00:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 00:00 Portland United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 00:00 Gregory United States  0.2
07 Jul 2020 19:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 19:00 El Roble Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 19:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:15 Datilito Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:15 La Paz Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:15 Rosario Mexico  0.2
07 Jul 2020 18:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:45 El Barril Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 21:45 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
07 Jul 2020 21:45 Buena Vista United States  0.1
07 Jul 2020 21:45 Holly Beach United States  0.1
07 Jul 2020 21:45 South Padre Island United States  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:00 Arista Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 00:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 00:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:15 La Majada Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:00 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Maudlowe United States  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Tivoli United States  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Spanish Village United States  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Austwell United States  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Green Lake United States  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 North Seadrift United States  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Long Mott United States  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Seadrift United States  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 00:00 Ejido Guandalupe Victoria Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 00:00 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 00:00 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 00:00 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:00 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 20:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 20:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:00 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 19:00 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:15 Cunano Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
07 Jul 2020 18:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link