Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CRISTINA-20
in Mexico,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CRISTINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (08 Jul 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 90 km/h 0.3 m 189 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 0.4 m 436 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

115 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Jul 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico656 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Jul 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Jul 2020 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Jul 2020 12:00 126 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Jul 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico298387 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 134 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Jul 2020 00:00 151 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 08 Jul 2020 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Jul 2020 12:00 461 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Bahia Kino, Mexico. This height is estimated for 08 Jul 2020 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Jul 2020 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.3
08 Jul 2020 15:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.3
08 Jul 2020 15:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.3
08 Jul 2020 15:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.3
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.3
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 15:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 18:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 17:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 18:00 El Barril Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 15:30 La Playa Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 15:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 16:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 16:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:30 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:30 North Beach United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:30 Gardendale United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:30 Doyle United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:30 Orange Grove United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:30 Portland United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:30 Gregory United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 17:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 17:15 La Florida Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 17:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 15:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 15:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 15:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:00 Maudlowe United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:00 Tivoli United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:00 Spanish Village United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:00 Austwell United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:00 Green Lake United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:00 North Seadrift United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:00 Long Mott United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 12:00 Seadrift United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 18:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 15:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 15:15 Novillero Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Empalme Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 17:15 Cedros Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 15:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 16:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 16:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 16:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 16:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Mulege Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Buena Vista United States  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Holly Beach United States  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 South Padre Island United States  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 15:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 16:15 Quinones Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 15:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 17:00 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 17:00 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 17:00 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 17:00 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 16:15 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 16:15 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 17:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 16:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 16:15 Cunano Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 16:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 16:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 15:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 17:45 Arista Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 15:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 15:30 Huajapan Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 15:30 El Roble Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 16:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 17:45 Datilito Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 17:45 La Paz Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 17:45 Rosario Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 18:00 Loreto Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link