Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CRISTINA-20
in Mexico,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CRISTINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (12 Jul 21:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 97 km/h 0.3 m 96 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 0.4 m 436 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

115 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Jul 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico464 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Jul 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Jul 2020 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Jul 2020 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Jul 2020 18:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 09 Jul 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 09 Jul 2020 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Jul 2020 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Jul 2020 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 10 Jul 2020 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 10 Jul 2020 06:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 16 10 Jul 2020 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Jul 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico560619 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 134 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Jul 2020 00:00 151 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 08 Jul 2020 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Jul 2020 12:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Jul 2020 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 09 Jul 2020 00:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 09 Jul 2020 06:00 105 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 09 Jul 2020 12:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 09 Jul 2020 18:00 106 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 10 Jul 2020 00:00 98 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 15 10 Jul 2020 06:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 10 Jul 2020 12:00 241 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Puerto Venustiano Carranza, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Jul 2020 21:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Jul 2020 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Jul 2020 21:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.3
11 Jul 2020 05:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.3
11 Jul 2020 12:30 La Playa Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 07:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.2
11 Jul 2020 01:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 07:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
11 Jul 2020 00:45 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
11 Jul 2020 00:45 North Beach United States  0.2
11 Jul 2020 00:45 Gardendale United States  0.2
11 Jul 2020 00:45 Doyle United States  0.2
11 Jul 2020 00:45 Orange Grove United States  0.2
11 Jul 2020 00:45 Portland United States  0.2
11 Jul 2020 00:45 Gregory United States  0.2
11 Jul 2020 05:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
11 Jul 2020 05:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:45 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:45 El Roble Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:45 Cachimba Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 07:00 El Barril Mexico  0.2
11 Jul 2020 05:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
11 Jul 2020 05:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
12 Jul 2020 20:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:15 Empalme Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:00 Datilito Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:00 Rosario Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:15 Arista Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:45 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
11 Jul 2020 22:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
11 Jul 2020 22:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
11 Jul 2020 05:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 17:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 17:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 17:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:15 Mulege Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:15 Los Dolores Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 17:00 San Jose Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:30 La Majada Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:30 Liliba Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 17:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:30 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.2
11 Jul 2020 05:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:30 Ligui Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:30 Tripui Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 18:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:45 Loreto Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 19:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 19:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
10 Jul 2020 16:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
11 Jul 2020 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 05:45 Maudlowe United States  0.2
13 Jul 2020 05:45 Tivoli United States  0.2
13 Jul 2020 05:45 Spanish Village United States  0.2
13 Jul 2020 05:45 Austwell United States  0.2
13 Jul 2020 05:45 Green Lake United States  0.2
13 Jul 2020 05:45 North Seadrift United States  0.2
13 Jul 2020 05:45 Long Mott United States  0.2
13 Jul 2020 05:45 Seadrift United States  0.2
12 Jul 2020 05:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 03:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 22:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
12 Jul 2020 20:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 16:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 16:45 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 16:45 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 16:45 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 06:30 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 19:30 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 19:30 Buena Vista United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 19:30 Holly Beach United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 19:30 South Padre Island United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 15:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 15:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 15:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
12 Jul 2020 20:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 22:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 22:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 18:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 22:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 01:30 Laguna Vista United States  0.1
11 Jul 2020 01:30 Laguna Heights United States  0.1
11 Jul 2020 01:30 Port Isabel United States  0.1
11 Jul 2020 01:30 Kopernik Shores United States  0.1
11 Jul 2020 01:30 Boca Chica United States  0.1
11 Jul 2020 04:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 06:30 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
12 Jul 2020 02:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 20:30 La Gloria Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 20:30 Chaparral Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 06:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 03:15 Santa Maria Xandani Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 03:15 Costa Rica Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 21:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 21:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 21:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 16:45 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 22:30 Ejido Guandalupe Victoria Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 22:30 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 22:30 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 22:30 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 00:30 Peary Place United States  0.1
11 Jul 2020 00:30 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
11 Jul 2020 00:30 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.1
11 Jul 2020 00:30 Ingleside United States  0.1
11 Jul 2020 00:30 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.1
11 Jul 2020 00:30 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
11 Jul 2020 00:30 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.1
11 Jul 2020 00:30 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 16:15 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 16:15 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
12 Jul 2020 13:45 La Boca Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 03:00 Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 03:00 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 06:00 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 16:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
12 Jul 2020 13:45 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 19:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
11 Jul 2020 19:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
12 Jul 2020 13:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 15:45 Ayutla Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 12:45 Alamo Beach United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 12:45 Point Comfort United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 12:45 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 12:45 Indianola United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 12:45 Olivia United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 12:45 Weedhaven United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 12:45 Port Alto United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 12:45 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 12:45 Carancahua United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 12:45 El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 18:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 17:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 17:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 17:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
12 Jul 2020 20:15 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
12 Jul 2020 20:15 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link