Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CRISTINA-20
in Mexico,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CRISTINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (10 Jul 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 104 km/h 0.3 m 106 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 0.4 m 436 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

115 km/h

Up to 150 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Jul 2020 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico147969 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Jul 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Jul 2020 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Jul 2020 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Jul 2020 18:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 09 Jul 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 09 Jul 2020 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Jul 2020 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Jul 2020 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Jul 2020 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico34675 
50-100 mmMexico254420 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 134 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Jul 2020 00:00 151 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 08 Jul 2020 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Jul 2020 12:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Jul 2020 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 09 Jul 2020 00:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 09 Jul 2020 06:00 105 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 09 Jul 2020 12:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 09 Jul 2020 18:00 393 30 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Corpus Christi, United States. This height is estimated for 10 Jul 2020 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Jul 2020 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.3
10 Jul 2020 00:00 North Beach United States  0.3
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Gardendale United States  0.3
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Doyle United States  0.3
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Orange Grove United States  0.3
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Portland United States  0.3
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Gregory United States  0.3
09 Jul 2020 21:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 22:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 22:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 22:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:45 Maudlowe United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:45 Tivoli United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:45 Spanish Village United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:45 Austwell United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:45 Green Lake United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:45 North Seadrift United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:45 Long Mott United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:45 Seadrift United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 22:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 23:30 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 23:30 El Roble Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 23:30 Cachimba Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 20:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 21:30 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 21:30 Buena Vista United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 21:30 Holly Beach United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 21:30 South Padre Island United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 23:30 La Gloria Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 23:30 Chaparral Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 22:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 20:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 21:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 23:15 Ejido Guandalupe Victoria Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 23:15 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 23:15 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 23:15 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 22:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 23:15 La Majada Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Laguna Vista United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Port Isabel United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Boca Chica United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 22:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Peary Place United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Ingleside United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 21:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 21:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 21:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:00 Alamo Beach United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:00 Point Comfort United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:00 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:00 Indianola United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:00 Olivia United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:00 Weedhaven United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:00 Port Alto United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:00 Carancahua United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:00 El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 23:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 23:00 Arista Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 21:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 21:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 19:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 23:45 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 23:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 23:15 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 21:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 21:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 23:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 20:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
10 Jul 2020 00:00 El Barril Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link