Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CRISTINA-20
in Mexico,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CRISTINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 61 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (13 Jul 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 61 km/h 0.3 m 33 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 0.4 m 436 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

115 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Jul 2020 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico44 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Jul 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Jul 2020 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Jul 2020 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Jul 2020 18:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 09 Jul 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 09 Jul 2020 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Jul 2020 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Jul 2020 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 10 Jul 2020 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 10 Jul 2020 06:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 16 10 Jul 2020 12:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 10 Jul 2020 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 11 Jul 2020 00:00 97 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 19 11 Jul 2020 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 11 Jul 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 11 Jul 2020 18:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 12 Jul 2020 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 12 Jul 2020 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 12 Jul 2020 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 12 Jul 2020 18:00 61 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Jul 2020 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico292736 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 134 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Jul 2020 00:00 151 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 08 Jul 2020 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Jul 2020 12:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Jul 2020 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 09 Jul 2020 00:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 09 Jul 2020 06:00 105 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 09 Jul 2020 12:00 128 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 09 Jul 2020 18:00 106 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 10 Jul 2020 00:00 98 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 15 10 Jul 2020 06:00 82 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 10 Jul 2020 12:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 10 Jul 2020 18:00 124 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 18 11 Jul 2020 00:00 130 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 19 11 Jul 2020 06:00 87 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 20 11 Jul 2020 12:00 116 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 11 Jul 2020 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 12 Jul 2020 00:00 44 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 12 Jul 2020 06:00 36 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 12 Jul 2020 12:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 12 Jul 2020 18:00 177 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Bahia Kino, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Jul 2020 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Jul 2020 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Jul 2020 16:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.3
13 Jul 2020 16:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.3
14 Jul 2020 08:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.3
12 Jul 2020 21:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.3
14 Jul 2020 08:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 15:45 El Barril Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:30 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:30 North Beach United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:30 Gardendale United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:30 Doyle United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:30 Orange Grove United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:30 Portland United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:30 Gregory United States  0.2
13 Jul 2020 16:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:45 Maudlowe United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:45 Tivoli United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:45 Spanish Village United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:45 Austwell United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:45 Green Lake United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:45 North Seadrift United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:45 Long Mott United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 05:45 Seadrift United States  0.2
12 Jul 2020 23:00 Datilito Mexico  0.2
12 Jul 2020 23:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
12 Jul 2020 23:00 Rosario Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 15:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 02:45 Cachimba Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 02:45 Arista Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 16:00 Empalme Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 02:30 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 02:30 El Roble Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2020 03:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2020 03:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2020 03:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 16:00 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 04:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 04:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 16:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 16:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
12 Jul 2020 22:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
12 Jul 2020 20:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 04:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 04:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 16:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2020 03:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2020 03:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 00:00 La Majada Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 15:45 Mulege Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 15:45 Los Dolores Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 02:45 Pesqueria Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 02:45 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 02:45 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 15:45 San Ignacio Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 15:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 15:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 15:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:30 Ligui Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:30 Tripui Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:30 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 15:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 04:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 16:00 San Jose Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 10:30 La Playa Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2020 03:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
15 Jul 2020 03:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 16:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 15:30 Santa Marta Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 15:45 Liliba Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 04:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 02:45 Santa Maria Xandani Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 02:45 Costa Rica Mexico  0.2
14 Jul 2020 06:15 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 07:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 16:00 Loreto Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 16:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 04:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
13 Jul 2020 06:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.2
12 Jul 2020 23:30 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.2
12 Jul 2020 23:30 Buena Vista United States  0.2
12 Jul 2020 23:30 Holly Beach United States  0.2
12 Jul 2020 23:30 South Padre Island United States  0.2
15 Jul 2020 03:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 02:45 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 02:45 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 22:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 22:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 15:45 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 15:15 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 07:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
12 Jul 2020 21:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
14 Jul 2020 06:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:15 Alamo Beach United States  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:15 Point Comfort United States  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:15 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:15 Indianola United States  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:15 Olivia United States  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:15 Weedhaven United States  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:15 Port Alto United States  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:15 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:15 Carancahua United States  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:15 El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
13 Jul 2020 04:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 04:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 04:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 03:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 05:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2020 03:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:15 Camp Hulen United States  0.1
13 Jul 2020 16:15 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 14:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2020 13:45 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 16:15 Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 22:45 Ejido Guandalupe Victoria Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 22:45 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 22:45 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 22:45 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2020 03:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2020 03:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2020 03:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:30 Palacios United States  0.1
15 Jul 2020 04:30 Collegeport United States  0.1
13 Jul 2020 04:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 04:00 Cunano Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 04:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
12 Jul 2020 20:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 15:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 15:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 15:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
13 Jul 2020 07:15 Galveston United States  0.1
13 Jul 2020 19:15 Quinones Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link