Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
22 Jan 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 126 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (22 Jan 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 126 km/h 0.8 m 160 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 137 km/h 2.2 m 608 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique310,684 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 65 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 68 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Madagascar
GREEN 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 130 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 140 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

608 mm

Up to 3.4 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMozambique8,542 
100-250 mmMalawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe3,417,282
+
Malawi28,169 
Mozambique2,955,049 
Zimbabwe434,064 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, South Africa4,726,101
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1,940 
Zambia13,268 
Malawi2,439,566 
Mozambique1,503,637 
Zimbabwe707,036 
Madagascar55,494 
South Africa5,160 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Jan 2021 06:00 62 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Jan 2021 12:00 94 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 3 17 Jan 2021 18:00 142 -
- - - - - Zimbabwe, Mozambique
Blue 4 18 Jan 2021 00:00 281 Few people
- - - - Mozambique
Blue 5 18 Jan 2021 06:00 384 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 6 18 Jan 2021 12:00 191 20 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 7 18 Jan 2021 18:00 103 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 8 19 Jan 2021 00:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 19 Jan 2021 06:00 81 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 19 Jan 2021 12:00 82 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 11 19 Jan 2021 18:00 201 210 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 12 20 Jan 2021 00:00 213 80 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 13 20 Jan 2021 06:00 186 180 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 14 20 Jan 2021 12:00 198 -
- - - - - Madagascar, Mozambique
Blue 15 20 Jan 2021 18:00 150 3 thousand
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 16 21 Jan 2021 00:00 54 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 17 21 Jan 2021 06:00 86 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 18 21 Jan 2021 12:00 99 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Blue 19 21 Jan 2021 18:00 89 -
- - - - - Zambia
Blue 20 22 Jan 2021 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Mozambique
Blue 21 22 Jan 2021 06:00 286 3.4 million
- - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 22 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 22 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.8
22 Jan 2021 11:15 Machesse Mozambique  0.7
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Amado Mozambique  0.7
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Jonja Mozambique  0.7
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Bingue Mozambique  0.7
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Rupia Mozambique  0.7
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Tama Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Beira Mozambique  0.6
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Chamba Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 11:30 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Antunes Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 07:15 Mulia Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 07:15 Barra Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Manica Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.5
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Ambanhe Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Ampara Mozambique  0.4
22 Jan 2021 06:45 Tomodo Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 07:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Metambanhe Mozambique  0.3
22 Jan 2021 06:15 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Jo Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 06:00 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.2
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Ambalatsingy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Ankinganomby Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Singalana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Antaribao Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Anjiajia Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Ambodibonara Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Tsaratanana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Ampasindava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Ankinganifahatelo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:45 Marovoha Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:45 Ampitily Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 07:30 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 06:30 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Catine Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Antetikireja Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:15 Beula Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:15 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:15 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:15 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:45 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:45 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 07:45 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Onara Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 08:45 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:45 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:45 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 09:45 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 07:45 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Ambodiadabo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Androlavy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 08:15 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 10:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 12:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 08:15 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 11:45 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
22 Jan 2021 08:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
22 Jan 2021 08:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1