Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
28 Aug 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (30 Aug 09:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 104 km/h 0.3 m 124 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

140 km/h

Up to 90 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico87,840 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 144 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico748,754 
100-250 mmMexico2,228,070 
50-100 mmMexico3,812,064 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 370 3 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 09:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
30 Aug 2021 09:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Chola Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 09:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 08:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 07:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Monteon Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 06:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Novillero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Chamela Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:45 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:45 Ipala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:15 La Lima Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:15 Corrales Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:30 Pizota Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 03:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 17:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 06:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 03:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 07:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 19:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 03:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 03:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:15 Molino Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:15 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Liliba Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 04:15 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 04:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:45 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:00 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 10:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:30 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:45 Marmol Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 04:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Empalme Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:30 La Playa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 La Paz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 00:00 Cedros Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 La Boca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:00 El Barril Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 20:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:45 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1