Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BELNA-19 in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 04 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC to 11 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BELNA-19

in Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

11 Dec 2019 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BELNA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	50 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (11 Dec 14:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	50 km/h	0.2 m	97 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	144 km/h	0.8 m	530 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

144 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 11 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	101	-		-	-	-	-	-	Seychelles
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	09 Dec 2019 00:00	144	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
12	09 Dec 2019 12:00	104	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
13	10 Dec 2019 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	10 Dec 2019 12:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	11 Dec 2019 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	11 Dec 2019 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Madagascar, Mozambique	159,827	+
	Madagascar	121,298
	Mozambique	38,529
50-100 mm	Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique	3,009,596	+
	Comoros	4,766
	Madagascar	2,839,087
	Mozambique	165,743

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Dec 2019 00:00	253	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	04 Dec 2019 12:00	220	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Dec 2019 00:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Dec 2019 12:00	282	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania
5	06 Dec 2019 00:00	402	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Dec 2019 12:00	167	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Dec 2019 00:00	134	Few people			-	-	-	-	Seychelles
8	07 Dec 2019 12:00	227	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
9	08 Dec 2019 00:00	188	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Dec 2019 12:00	252	8 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
11	09 Dec 2019 00:00	295	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
12	09 Dec 2019 12:00	247	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
13	10 Dec 2019 00:00	197	40 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Madagascar
14	10 Dec 2019 12:00	204	180 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
15	11 Dec 2019 00:00	139	30 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
16	11 Dec 2019 12:00	244	160 thousand			-	-	-	-	Comoros, Madagascar, Mozambique

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Mahabo, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Dec 2019 14:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	11 Dec 2019 14:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Dec 2019 14:30	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Dec 2019 14:30	Amboaboaka	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Dec 2019 14:30	Matahibory	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Dec 2019 14:30	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.2
	11 Dec 2019 14:30	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.2
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	12 Dec 2019 00:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 19:15	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 19:15	Befamata	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 19:15	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 19:30	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 19:30	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 19:15	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:15	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:15	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:15	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:15	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:15	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:15	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:15	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 13:45	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:45	Tsianinkiro	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 19:45	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 19:45	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 19:45	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 19:45	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 19:45	Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 20:15	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 20:15	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 20:15	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:45	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:45	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:45	Andramy	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:45	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	11 Dec 2019 14:30	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.