Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
28 Aug 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 140 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (28 Aug 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 140 km/h 0.3 m 167 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico72,160 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

538 mm

Up to 3.3 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico365,983 
100-250 mmMexico2,908,535 
50-100 mmMexico8,130,564 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 124 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 157 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 426 3.3 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 28 Aug 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Aug 2021 12:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 20:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Monteon Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 22:45 La Lima Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 19:15 Chola Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Chamela Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 00:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Ipala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 09:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 13:15 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 13:15 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Pizota Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 02:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Corrales Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 04:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:15 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 12:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:00 El Tule Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 13:45 Santiago Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 13:45 Manzanillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Novillero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 03:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 20:15 La Boca Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 11:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 07:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 22:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:45 La Playa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:45 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:45 Molino Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 01:45 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:30 El Real Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:30 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:45 Cedros Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 Barron Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 09:15 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 Empalme Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:45 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:30 Marmol Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:45 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:30 Coronado United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:30 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:30 Boal United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Ligui Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Tripui Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:15 El Barril Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:30 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:00 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:45 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1