Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CRISTINA-20
in Mexico,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CRISTINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 94 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (08 Jul 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 94 km/h 0.3 m 151 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 0.4 m 436 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

115 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Jul 2020 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico227 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Jul 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Jul 2020 06:00 130 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Jul 2020 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico227 
50-100 mmMexico1410205 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 134 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Jul 2020 00:00 151 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 08 Jul 2020 06:00 370 Few people
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in La Playa, Mexico. This height is estimated for 08 Jul 2020 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Jul 2020 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
08 Jul 2020 09:00 La Playa Mexico  0.3
08 Jul 2020 08:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.3
08 Jul 2020 08:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 08:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 09:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 09:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 North Beach United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Doyle United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Portland United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Gregory United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 11:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 11:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Maudlowe United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Tivoli United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Spanish Village United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Austwell United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Green Lake United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 North Seadrift United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Long Mott United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Seadrift United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 08:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 10:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:30 El Barril Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 06:45 Alamo Beach United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 06:45 Point Comfort United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 06:45 Magnolia Beach United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 06:45 Indianola United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 06:45 Olivia United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 06:45 Weedhaven United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 06:45 Port Alto United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 06:45 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 06:45 Carancahua United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 06:45 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
08 Jul 2020 07:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
08 Jul 2020 11:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 11:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 08:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 06:45 Camp Hulen United States  0.1
08 Jul 2020 07:45 Huajapan Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 07:45 El Roble Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 07:45 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 11:15 Novillero Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 06:45 Palacios United States  0.1
08 Jul 2020 06:45 Collegeport United States  0.1
08 Jul 2020 09:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 11:15 La Florida Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 11:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 11:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 09:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 09:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 09:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 12:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 09:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 09:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 06:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 06:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 06:30 Citrus Grove United States  0.1
08 Jul 2020 06:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 11:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 09:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 11:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 09:15 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 11:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 09:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 09:15 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 08:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 08:45 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 08:45 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 07:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 07:30 La Gloria Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 07:30 Chaparral Mexico  0.1
08 Jul 2020 07:30 Arista Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link