Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (29 Aug 00:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 65 km/h 0.2 m 94 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

140 km/h

Up to 3 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico3,142 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico762,738 
50-100 mmMexico10,710,537 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 124 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 157 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 167 170 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 132 80 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 250 760 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Monteon, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Aug 2021 00:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Monteon Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:15 La Lima Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 19:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 05:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 22:15 La Choya Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 22:15 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 06:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 16:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:15 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:45 San Blas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 16:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 16:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 01:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 01:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 01:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 09:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 12:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 12:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:45 Acapulco Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:45 El Marques Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 El Tule Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Florida Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:45 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:30 La Playa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 12:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 08:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Altata Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 09:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 19:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Azure Vista United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Roseville United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Loma Portal United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 San Diego United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Coronado United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:45 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:30 Marmol Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 09:15 La Boca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Dimas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:45 Loreto Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:45 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:45 El Barril Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Liliba Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:45 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Boal United States  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:15 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:45 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Corrales Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 10:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 10:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 Ipala Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 09:15 Datilito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 09:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:15 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:45 Quinones Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:15 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:45 Cunano Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:45 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:30 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1