Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	India
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	54 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (28 Sep 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	54 km/h	0.7 m	85 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

Up to 130 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	India	134,975

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
14	27 Sep 2021 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	27 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-		-	-	-	-	-	India

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	India	2,136,645
100-250 mm	India, Bangladesh	72,523,074	+
	India	72,093,404
	Bangladesh	429,670
50-100 mm	Nepal, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar	125,892,306	+
	Nepal	2,727,294
	India	105,325,038
	Bangladesh	17,836,697
	Myanmar	3,276

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Thailand
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	139	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Thailand, Myanmar
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	253	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar, Thailand
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	160	1.1 million			-	-	-	-	India, Myanmar
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	143	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	India, Thailand, Myanmar
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	55	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
14	27 Sep 2021 12:00	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	27 Sep 2021 18:00	353	74.7 million				-	-	-	Nepal, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Dakshin Char Fasson, Bangladesh. This height is estimated for 28 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 27 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Dakshin Char Fasson	Bangladesh	0.7
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Pyarimohan	Bangladesh	0.7
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Annadaprasad	Bangladesh	0.7
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Faizuddin	Bangladesh	0.7
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Krishnaprasad	Bangladesh	0.7
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Manpura	Bangladesh	0.7
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Kukuri Mukuri	Bangladesh	0.7
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Ar Kalmi	Bangladesh	0.7
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Aicha	Bangladesh	0.7
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Paila	Bangladesh	0.7
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Jahajmara	Bangladesh	0.6
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Maijchara	Bangladesh	0.6
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Golbania	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Bagala	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Debpur	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Bhaylabania	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Chalitabunia	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Hare	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Neta	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Chhota Baisdia	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Andar Char	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Burirchar	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Lakshmi	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Manika	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Bara Pata	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Hazipur	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Chandpur	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Lakshmi	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Kanchanpur	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Rabipur	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Algi	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Gazi	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Ramiz	Bangladesh	0.5
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Dasher Hat	Bangladesh	0.4
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Falcon	Bangladesh	0.4
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Bedama	Bangladesh	0.4
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Chandhuri Hat	Bangladesh	0.4
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Hatia	Bangladesh	0.4
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Khaser Hat	Bangladesh	0.4
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Nalchira	Bangladesh	0.4
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Ewazbalia	Bangladesh	0.4
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Sagaria	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 22:30	Kuakata	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 22:30	Mahipur	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 22:30	Char Chapli	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 22:30	Bara Baliatali	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 22:30	Kalapara	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Char Ishwar Ray	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Char Ishwar	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Sandwip	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Nayamasti	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Maitbhanga	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:45	Ghoshbagh	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:45	Munshir Hat	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:45	Akbar Hat	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:15	Char Fakura	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:15	Dhalapara	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:30	Bamnia	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:30	Tulatali	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:30	Char Chandia	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:30	Banskhali	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:30	Bariakhali	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:00	Charparbati	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:00	Bara Ahmadpur	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:00	Char Kalidas	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:45	Kamla Char	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 23:15	Jafarnagar	Bangladesh	0.4
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Barabkunda	Bangladesh	0.4
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Bansbaria	Bangladesh	0.4
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Kumira	Bangladesh	0.4
	27 Sep 2021 21:30	Sitalpur	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 21:30	Bhatiari	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 21:00	Dakhin Kattali	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 21:00	Chittagong	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 20:45	Char Lakshia	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 20:00	Dakhin Patenga	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 20:15	Janali Hat	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 20:15	Kalapul	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 20:15	Anowara	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 19:45	Gahira	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 19:45	Khankhanabad	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 19:45	Purba Gomdandi	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 19:30	Napura	Bangladesh	0.3
	27 Sep 2021 19:30	Dhurung	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 19:30	Lemsikhali	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 19:30	Ali Akbardeil	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 19:15	Magnama	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Chandra Prasad	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Chandpur	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Kali	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Pangasia	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Medua	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	South Dighaldi	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Sakusia	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Kalupura	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Munsi	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Hazari	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Lawrence	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Hijla	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Harni	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Goal Bhaor	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Jagannathpur	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 19:00	Supati	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 19:00	Bara Patharghata	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 19:00	Chhota Nishanbaria Chak	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 19:00	Bara Bagi	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Baga	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Char Kadira	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 18:30	Dhalua	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 18:30	Chhota Bagi	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 18:30	Chandkhali	Bangladesh	0.2
	28 Sep 2021 00:00	Miar Hat	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 18:00	Manfadh al Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 18:00	Ras all Khafji	Saudi Arabia	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 18:15	Dhalghata	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 22:00	Amavasyakhali	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 18:15	Kalarmarchara	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 18:15	Uttar Nalbila	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 22:00	Saflapur	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 18:00	Dineshpur	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 18:00	Bethua	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 22:00	Coxs Bazar	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 22:00	Ghatibhanga	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 22:00	Khurushkul	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 22:00	Fasiakhali	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 22:15	Dubla	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 21:45	Kelatali	Bangladesh	0.2
	27 Sep 2021 21:30	Pechardwip	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 21:30	Fulchhari	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Ywathitke	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Sittwe	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Kangyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Aindin	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Pyaingdaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Kyaukpyinseik	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 21:30	Jaliapalong	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 21:30	Dhoapalong	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Dakhinpara	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Kanyinchaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Jaliapara	Bangladesh	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Nyaunggyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Zawmadat	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Anauk Myinhlut	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 20:30	Kyaukpandu	Myanmar	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 21:00	Asumumbay	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 21:00	Alibag	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 21:00	Mandve	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 21:00	Uran	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 18:15	Mavalli	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 18:15	Shirali	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 18:15	Bhatkal	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 18:15	Bainduru	India	0.1
	27 Sep 2021 18:30	Chittadi	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.