Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CRISTINA-20
in Mexico,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CRISTINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 104 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (09 Jul 15:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 104 km/h 0.3 m 128 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 115 km/h 0.4 m 436 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

115 km/h

Up to 180 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Jul 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico175048 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 08 Jul 2020 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 08 Jul 2020 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Jul 2020 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Jul 2020 18:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 09 Jul 2020 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 09 Jul 2020 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Jul 2020 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Jul 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico863 
50-100 mmMexico2787373 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Jul 2020 18:00 208 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 07 Jul 2020 00:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 07 Jul 2020 06:00 134 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 07 Jul 2020 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Jul 2020 18:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 08 Jul 2020 00:00 151 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 08 Jul 2020 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Jul 2020 12:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Jul 2020 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 09 Jul 2020 00:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 09 Jul 2020 06:00 105 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 09 Jul 2020 12:00 313 Few people
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Puerto Venustiano Carranza, Mexico. This height is estimated for 09 Jul 2020 15:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Jul 2020 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Jul 2020 15:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.3
09 Jul 2020 15:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 15:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 14:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 North Beach United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Doyle United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Portland United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Gregory United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 El Roble Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 14:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 14:45 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Maudlowe United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Tivoli United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Spanish Village United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Austwell United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Green Lake United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 North Seadrift United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Long Mott United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Seadrift United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Datilito Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 La Paz Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Rosario Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 17:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 17:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 14:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Buena Vista United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Holly Beach United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 18:00 South Padre Island United States  0.2
09 Jul 2020 17:15 La Gloria Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 17:15 Chaparral Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 La Majada Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.2
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Arista Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:15 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:15 Cunano Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 12:00 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 17:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 12:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 12:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 12:15 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 17:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 15:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 15:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 15:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 15:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 17:30 El Barril Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:15 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 15:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 15:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Laguna Vista United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Port Isabel United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 18:00 Boca Chica United States  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 12:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 12:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:15 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:15 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 12:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
09 Jul 2020 14:45 La Playa Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link