Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
29 Aug 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (31 Aug 08:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 50 km/h 0.2 m 97 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

140 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 29 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico7,081 
100-250 mmMexico1,034,528 
50-100 mmMexico36,414,418 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 124 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 157 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 167 170 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 132 80 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 82 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 164 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 17 29 Aug 2021 18:00 292 1 million
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 31 Aug 2021 08:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
31 Aug 2021 08:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 09:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 09:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 09:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 08:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
01 Sep 2021 16:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 01:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Liliba Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 09:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 09:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 16:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:15 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:15 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Azure Vista United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Roseville United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Loma Portal United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 San Diego United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Coronado United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:30 La Playa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:00 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 12:45 Novillero Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:15 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 07:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 22:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:15 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Boal United States  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 04:45 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:15 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 04:45 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:45 Acapulco Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:45 El Marques Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 16:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:45 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 09:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 El Barril Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:45 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:45 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 08:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:15 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:45 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:45 El Tule Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:45 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 08:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Tripui Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:30 San Blas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:00 El Descanso Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 20:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:15 Erendria Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:30 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 19:30 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1