Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 in Oman from 24 Sep 2021 06:00 UTC to 03 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21

in Oman

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GULAB-21/SHAHEEN-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	50 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (29 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Oman)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	50 km/h	0.5 m	95 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.8 m	399 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

112 km/h

Up to 2.1 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India	2,131,896	+
	Afghanistan	81,316
	Iran	283,302
	Pakistan	1,764,276
	India	3,000

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	68	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran
14	27 Sep 2021 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	27 Sep 2021 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	28 Sep 2021 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	28 Sep 2021 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	28 Sep 2021 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	28 Sep 2021 18:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	29 Sep 2021 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	29 Sep 2021 06:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	29 Sep 2021 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
23	29 Sep 2021 18:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, India

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	India, Pakistan	16,818,721	+
	India	15,577,495
	Pakistan	1,241,225
50-100 mm	Nepal, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Thailand	83,813,815	+
	Nepal	6,359,227
	India	57,931,429
	Myanmar	387,764
	Pakistan	18,307,111
	Thailand	828,281

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Sep 2021 06:00	100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	24 Sep 2021 12:00	34	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	24 Sep 2021 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
4	25 Sep 2021 00:00	231	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Sep 2021 06:00	195	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	25 Sep 2021 12:00	161	-		-	-	-	-	-	Thailand
7	25 Sep 2021 18:00	139	3 thousand			-	-	-	-	Thailand, Myanmar
8	26 Sep 2021 00:00	253	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar
9	26 Sep 2021 06:00	69	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	26 Sep 2021 12:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Myanmar, Thailand
11	26 Sep 2021 18:00	160	1.1 million			-	-	-	-	India, Myanmar
12	27 Sep 2021 00:00	143	20 thousand			-	-	-	-	India, Thailand, Myanmar
13	27 Sep 2021 06:00	55	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
14	27 Sep 2021 12:00	45	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	27 Sep 2021 18:00	85	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
16	28 Sep 2021 00:00	117	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	28 Sep 2021 06:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
18	28 Sep 2021 12:00	171	770 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
19	28 Sep 2021 18:00	141	290 thousand			-	-	-	-	India
20	29 Sep 2021 00:00	147	2 million			-	-	-	-	India
21	29 Sep 2021 06:00	99	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
22	29 Sep 2021 12:00	92	-		-	-	-	-	-	India
23	29 Sep 2021 18:00	319	16.8 million			-	-	-	-	Nepal, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Wadgam, India. This height is estimated for 29 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 29 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Wadgam	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Kambhat	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Kavi	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Sarod	India	0.5
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Asarsa	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Harinagar	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Ghogha	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Dahej	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Tankari	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Muler	India	0.3
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Bhagva	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Damka	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Olpad	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 21:45	Mumbai	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 21:45	Asumumbay	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 21:45	Mandve	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 21:45	Uran	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 21:45	Trombay	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 21:45	Taloje	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 21:15	Alibag	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 19:00	Gangra	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 19:00	Kakdwip	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 19:00	Belpukur	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 19:00	Kulpi	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Abu Dhabi	United Arab Emirates	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Kotada	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 18:45	Namkhana	India	0.2
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Surat	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Jatar Deul	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Jalalpur	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Nausari	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Dharasana	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Valsad	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Bilimora	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Medua	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	South Dighaldi	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Sakusia	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Baga	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Kalupura	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Munsi	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Hazari	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Madhyam Lamchhidhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Hazipur	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Lawrence	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Falcon	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Rabipur	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Kadira	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Algi	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Gazi	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Miar Hat	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Ramiz	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Bedama	Bangladesh	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Udvada	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Chandra Prasad	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Chandpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Kali	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Pangasia	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Char Hijla	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Harni	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Goal Bhaor	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Jagannathpur	Bangladesh	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Jazirah	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Tarif	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Bu Lifiyat	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Navsari	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Daman	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 23:15	New Kandla	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Mahuver	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Mahuva	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 22:45	Shirgaon	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 22:45	Palghar	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 22:45	Mahim	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 22:45	Nalasopara	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 22:45	Agashi	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Maroli	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 18:00	Al Marfa	United Arab Emirates	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 22:30	Dongri	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 22:30	Vasai	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 22:30	Mira Bhayandar	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 21:15	Revadanda	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 23:00	Tarapur	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 23:00	Boisar	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 23:45	Umbargam	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 23:45	Bordi	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Gholvad	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Jafarabad	India	0.1
	30 Sep 2021 00:00	Kathiwadar Bandar	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 23:45	Malyan	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 23:45	Sakhare	India	0.1
	29 Sep 2021 21:00	Malad	India	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.